School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK.
School of Social Science, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 21;19(20):13656. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192013656.
The risk of the mosquito-borne diseases malaria, dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to shift both temporally and spatially under climate change. As climate change projections continue to improve, our ability to predict these shifts is also enhanced. This paper predicts transmission suitability for these mosquito-borne diseases, which are three of the most significant, using the most up-to-date climate change projections. Using a mechanistic methodology, areas that are newly suitable and those where people are most at risk of transmission under the best- and worst-case climate change scenarios have been identified. The results show that although transmission suitability is expected to decrease overall for malaria, some areas will become newly suitable, putting naïve populations at risk. In contrast, transmission suitability for dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to increase both in duration and geographical extent. Although transmission suitability is expected to increase in temperate zones for a few months of the year, suitability remains focused in the tropics. The highest transmission suitability in tropical regions is likely to exacerbate the intense existing vulnerability of these populations, especially children, to the multiple consequences of climate change, and their severe lack of resources and agency to cope with these impacts and pressures. As these changes in transmission suitability are amplified under the worst-case climate change scenario, this paper makes the case in support of enhanced and more urgent efforts to mitigate climate change than has been achieved to date. By presenting consistent data on the climate-driven spread of multiple mosquito-borne diseases, our work provides more holistic information to underpin prevention and control planning and decision making at national and regional levels.
在气候变化的影响下，蚊媒疾病（疟疾、登革热和寨卡病毒）的风险预计将在时间和空间上发生转移。随着气候变化预测的不断改进，我们预测这些变化的能力也得到了增强。本研究使用最新的气候变化预测，对这三种最重要的蚊媒疾病的传播适宜性进行了预测。采用一种基于机制的方法，确定了在最佳和最差气候变化情景下，新出现的适宜传播区域和人群最易受传播影响的区域。结果表明，尽管疟疾的传播适宜性总体上预计会下降，但一些地区将变得适宜传播，使天真的人群面临风险。相比之下，登革热和寨卡病毒的传播适宜性预计会在时间和地理范围上增加。虽然在一年中的几个月里，温带地区的传播适宜性预计会增加，但适宜性仍然集中在热带地区。热带地区的最高传播适宜性可能会加剧这些人群，尤其是儿童，对气候变化带来的多重影响的脆弱性，以及他们应对这些影响和压力的严重缺乏资源和能力。由于在最差气候变化情景下，这些传播适宜性的变化会被放大，因此本研究支持加强和更紧迫地努力减缓气候变化，这比目前已经取得的进展更为迫切。通过提供关于多种蚊媒疾病的气候驱动传播的一致数据，我们的工作为国家和地区层面的预防和控制规划和决策提供了更全面的信息支持。
