de Souza Filipe Costa
Departamento de Ciências Contábeis e Atuariais, Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Cidade Universitária, Avenida dos Funcionários, S/N, Recife, PE CEP 50670-901 Brazil.
Eur J Ageing. 2019 Dec 14;17(3):331-339. doi: 10.1007/s10433-019-00549-3. eCollection 2020 Sep.
This paper investigated the relationships between the best-practice and the greatest possible life expectancies by means of gaps, lags and decomposition analyses, from 1950-1955 up to 2095-2100. The data were gathered from the United Nations' World Population Prospects (2017), containing abridged period life tables, for both sexes combined, for 201 countries or areas, which allowed the identification of low-mortality regions that are sometimes omitted in previous studies. It was observed that both best-practice and greatest possible life expectancies rose and are expected to continue to rise linearly in a very similar way. Moreover, the average gap between the best-practice and the greatest possible life expectancies was of about 1.14 years and the average lag was 7.59 years. Finally, it was found that major contributions to the gap are typically due to age groups beyond 65 years.
本文通过差距、滞后和分解分析，研究了1950 - 1955年至2095 - 2100年期间最佳实践与最大可能预期寿命之间的关系。数据来自联合国《世界人口展望》（2017年），其中包含201个国家或地区的合并简略时期生命表，涵盖男女两性，这使得能够识别出先前研究中有时被遗漏的低死亡率地区。研究发现，最佳实践和最大可能预期寿命均有所上升，并且预计将以非常相似的方式继续线性上升。此外，最佳实践与最大可能预期寿命之间的平均差距约为1.14年，平均滞后为7.59年。最后，研究发现，差距的主要贡献通常来自65岁以上的年龄组。
