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中国武汉新冠疫情第一波大流行的疾病负担与临床严重程度

Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.

作者信息

Yang Juan, Chen Xinhua, Deng Xiaowei, Chen Zhiyuan, Gong Hui, Yan Han, Wu Qianhui, Shi Huilin, Lai Shengjie, Ajelli Marco, Viboud Cecile, Yu Hongjie

机构信息

School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.

WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK.

出版信息

medRxiv. 2020 Sep 1:2020.08.27.20183228. doi: 10.1101/2020.08.27.20183228.

DOI:10.1101/2020.08.27.20183228
PMID:32909016
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7480068/
Abstract

The pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China, where a first wave of intense community transmission was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data source, we estimated the disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 by age in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We adjusted estimates for sensitivity of laboratory assays and accounted for prospective community screenings and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were estimated at 796 (95%CI: 703-977), 489 (472-509), 370 (358-384), and 36.2 (35.0-37.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan had higher burden than the 2009 influenza pandemic or seasonal influenza, and that clinical severity was similar to that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our comparison puts the COVID-19 pandemic into context and could be helpful to guide intervention strategies and preparedness for the potential resurgence of COVID-19.

摘要

2019年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行始于中国武汉，在当地，第一波强烈的社区传播因干预措施而缩短。我们利用多个数据源，估计了2019年12月1日至2020年3月31日期间武汉地区COVID-19按年龄划分的疾病负担和临床严重程度。我们对实验室检测的敏感性估计进行了调整，并考虑了前瞻性社区筛查和就医行为。有症状病例、医疗咨询、住院和死亡的发生率估计分别为每10万人796例（95%置信区间：703-977）、489例（472-509）、370例（358-384）和36.2例（35.0-37.3）。武汉的COVID-19疫情负担高于2009年流感大流行或季节性流感，其临床严重程度与1918年流感大流行相似。我们的比较将COVID-19大流行置于背景之中，可能有助于指导干预策略以及为COVID-19的潜在卷土重来做好准备。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/04993055a2f1/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/69a8d913bed2/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/4e7b7cee5ee5/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/fd4ebd70dd51/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/04993055a2f1/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/69a8d913bed2/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/4e7b7cee5ee5/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/fd4ebd70dd51/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9419/7480068/04993055a2f1/nihpp-2020.08.27.20183228-f0005.jpg

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