Mohsen Attayeb, Alarabi Ahmed
Laboratory of Bioinformatics, Artificial Intelligence Center for Health and Biomedical Research (ArCHER). National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition., Ibaraki city, Osaka, 567-0085, Japan.
Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Irma Lerma Rangel College of Pharmacy, Texas A&M University, Kingsville, Texas, 78363, USA.
F1000Res. 2020 May 27;9:452. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.24156.1. eCollection 2020.
Community containment is one of the common methods used to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. The effectiveness of such a method depends on how strictly it is applied and the timing of its implementation. An early start and being strict is very effective; however, at the same time, it impacts freedom and economic opportunity. Here we created a simulation model to understand the effect of the starting day of community containment on the final outcome, that is, the number of those infected, hospitalized and those that died, as we followed the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. We used a stochastic recursive simulation method to apply disease outbreak dynamics measures of COVID-19 as an example to simulate disease spread. Parameters are allowed to be randomly assigned between higher and lower values obtained from published COVID-19 literature. We simulated the dynamics of COVID-19 spread, calculated the number of active infections, hospitalizations and deaths as the outcome of our simulation and compared these results with real world data. We also represented the details of the spread in a network graph structure, and shared the code for the simulation model to be used for examining other variables. Early implementation of community containment has a big impact on the final outcome of an outbreak.
社区防控是减轻传染病爆发的常用方法之一。这种方法的有效性取决于实施的严格程度及其实施时机。尽早开始并严格执行非常有效；然而，与此同时，它会影响自由和经济机会。在这里，我们创建了一个模拟模型，以了解社区防控开始日期对最终结果的影响，即随着我们跟踪新冠疫情的动态，了解感染、住院和死亡人数。我们以新冠疫情的疾病爆发动态测量为例，使用随机递归模拟方法来模拟疾病传播。参数允许在从已发表的新冠文献中获得的较高值和较低值之间随机分配。我们模拟了新冠病毒传播的动态，计算了活跃感染、住院和死亡人数作为模拟结果，并将这些结果与实际数据进行比较。我们还在网络图结构中展示了传播细节，并共享了模拟模型的代码以供检查其他变量。早期实施社区防控对疫情的最终结果有很大影响。
