School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, South Australia.
Robinson Research Institute, The University of Adelaide, South Australia.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2022 Aug;46(4):482-487. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.13249. Epub 2022 May 12.
To assess the impact of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 cases across Victoria and South Australia.
Poisson regression models were fit to examine the effect of NPIs on weekly COVID-19 case numbers.
Mask-wearing in Victoria had a pronounced lag effect of two weeks with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.27 (95%CI 0.26-0.29). Similarly, the effect of border closure (IRR 0.18; 95%CI 0.14-0.22) in South Australia and lockdown (IRR 0.88; 95%CI 0.86-0.91) in Victoria showed a decrease in incidence two weeks after the introduction of these interventions.
With the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, varying levels of vaccination coverage rates and threats from variants of concern, NPIs are likely to remain in place. It is thus important to validate the effectiveness and timing of different interventions for disease control, as those that are more restrictive such as border control and lockdown can have an enormous impact on society.
Low case numbers and deaths in Australia's first wave of COVID-19 are thought to be due to the timely use of interventions. The observed two-week lag effect associated with a decrease in incidence provides justification for early implementation of NPIs for COVID-19 management and future pandemics.
评估维多利亚州和南澳大利亚州不同非药物干预（NPIs）对 COVID-19 病例的影响。
使用泊松回归模型来检验 NPIs 对每周 COVID-19 病例数的影响。
维多利亚州戴口罩的效果有明显的两周时滞，发病率比（IRR）为 0.27（95%CI 0.26-0.29）。同样，南澳大利亚州边境关闭（IRR 0.18；95%CI 0.14-0.22）和维多利亚州封锁（IRR 0.88；95%CI 0.86-0.91）的效果也显示，在这些干预措施实施两周后，发病率下降。
随着 COVID-19 大流行的持续，疫苗接种率和对关注变体威胁的水平各不相同，NPIs 可能仍将继续实施。因此，验证不同干预措施的有效性和时机对于疾病控制非常重要，因为边境控制和封锁等更具限制性的措施可能会对社会产生巨大影响。
澳大利亚 COVID-19 第一波的低病例数和低死亡率被认为是及时使用干预措施的结果。发病率下降与两周时滞相关，这为 COVID-19 管理和未来大流行中 NPIs 的早期实施提供了依据。
