Smetters Kent A
Wharton and NBER, Philadelphia, USA.
Geneva Risk Insur Rev. 2020;45(2):94-103. doi: 10.1057/s10713-020-00056-x. Epub 2020 Sep 10.
Integrated epidemiological-economics models have recently appeared to study optimal government policy, especially stay-at-home orders (mass "quarantines"). But these models are challenging to interpret due to the lack of closed-form solutions. This note provides an intuitive and graphical explanation of optimal quarantine policy. To be optimal, a quarantine requires "the cavalry" (e.g., mass testing, strong therapeutics, or a vaccine) to arrive just in time, not too early or too late. The graphical explanation accommodates numerous extensions, including hospital constraints, sick worker, age differentiation, and learning. The effect of uncertainty about the arrival time of "the cavalry" is also discussed.
综合流行病学 - 经济学模型最近出现，用于研究最优政府政策，特别是居家令（大规模“隔离”）。但由于缺乏闭式解，这些模型难以解释。本笔记提供了最优隔离政策的直观且图形化的解释。要达到最优，隔离需要“援军”（例如大规模检测、强效治疗方法或疫苗）及时到来，不能太早或太晚。这种图形化解释涵盖了许多扩展内容，包括医院限制、患病工人、年龄差异和学习情况。还讨论了“援军”到达时间不确定性的影响。
