Yu Zidong, Zhu Xiaolin, Liu Xintao, Wei Tao, Yuan Hsiang-Yu, Xu Yang, Zhu Rui, He Huan, Wang Hui, Wong Man Sing, Jia Peng, Guo Song, Shi Wenzhong, Chen Wu
Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
School of Psychology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jul 14;18(14):7494. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18147494.
With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quarantines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7-12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.
在多数国家广泛实施新冠疫苗接种的情况下，受振兴旅游经济需求的推动，以旅游为主的国家和地区放宽社交距离规定和重新开放边境的前景日益增加。这种需求促使利益相关者制定边境管控策略，以便在解除强制隔离措施时能全面评估健康风险。在本研究中，我们采用了一种计算方法来研究中国香港在不同边境重新开放情景下的接触者追踪综合政策。具体而言，通过从历史数据重建新冠病毒传播情况，将数字接触者追踪与其他并行措施（即控制入境人口和社区非药物干预措施）联合作用的特定情景应用于预测疫情的未来发展。基于一个接种覆盖率为30%的改进型SEIR流行病模型，结果表明，与没有接触者追踪的情景相比，采用数字接触者追踪和快速隔离干预措施的情景可将感染人群减少92.11%。通过进一步将每日入境人口限制在10000人的配额，并实施中度至强度的社区非药物干预措施，在60天的预测期内，每日新增确诊病例平均可很好地控制在每天9例左右（95%置信区间：7 - 12）。本研究得出了两条主要政策建议。第一，数字接触者追踪将是减少本地病毒传播的有效对策，尤其是在与适度的疫苗接种覆盖率同时应用时。第二，对入境旅客实施每日配额以及严格的社区非药物干预措施将进一步控制本地感染情况。本研究为制定和实施解除强制边境管控政策的计划以迎接全球经济复苏提供了科学依据和前瞻性指导。
