Centre for Global Health Research, St Michael's Hospital & University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2020 Dec;27(4):528-536. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2020.1818788. Epub 2020 Sep 16.
Reducing the road traffic injuries burden is relevant to many sustainable development goals (SDG), in particular SDG3 - to establish good health and well-being. To describe the spatial-temporal trends and identify hotspot regions for fatal road traffic injuries, a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to analyze data on vulnerable road users (bicyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrians) in Brazil from 1999 to 2016. During the study period, mortality rates for bicyclists remained almost unchanged (0.6 per 100,000 people) but rose dramatically for motorcyclists (from 1.0 in 1999 to 6.0 per 100,000 people in 2016) and decreased for pedestrians (from 6.3 to 3.0 per 100,000 people). Spatial analyses accounting for socio-economic factors showed that the central and northeastern microregions of Brazil are hotspot areas for fatal injuries among motorcyclists while the southern areas are for pedestrians.
降低道路交通伤害负担与许多可持续发展目标（SDG）相关，特别是与 SDG3 有关，即建立良好的健康和福祉。为了描述致命道路交通伤害的时空趋势并确定热点地区，使用贝叶斯层次泊松模型分析了巴西 1999 年至 2016 年脆弱道路使用者（骑自行车者、骑摩托车者和行人）的数据。在研究期间，骑自行车者的死亡率几乎保持不变（每 10 万人中 0.6 人），但骑摩托车者的死亡率急剧上升（从 1999 年的每 10 万人 1.0 人上升到 2016 年的每 10 万人 6.0 人），行人的死亡率则下降（从每 10 万人 6.3 人下降到 3.0 人）。考虑社会经济因素的空间分析表明，巴西的中北部和东北部微区是骑摩托车者致命伤害的热点地区，而南部地区则是行人的热点地区。
