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巴西里约热内卢零容忍酒驾法对根据受害者类型、性别和年龄划分的道路交通死亡人数的影响:一项中断时间序列研究。

Effect of the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law on mortality due to road traffic accidents according to the type of victim, sex, and age in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: An interrupted time series study.

机构信息

a Coordination of Assistance, National Cancer Institute José Alencar Gomes da Silva , Ministry of Health , Rio de Janeiro , Brazil.

b Center for Data Integration and Knowledge for Health , Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation , Salvador , Brazil.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2019;20(3):227-232. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2019.1576035. Epub 2019 Apr 15.

Abstract

: The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of the Brazilian zero-tolerance drinking and driving law on mortality rates due to road traffic accidents according to the type of victim, sex, and age. : An interrupted time series design was used to compare yearly mortality rates due to road traffic accidents in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, before and after the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law came into effect on June 19, 2008. Yearly mortality rates were compared according to the type of victim: pedestrian, cyclist, motorcyclist, and vehicle occupant. We used the Prais-Winsten procedure of autoregression in the analysis of time series; the outcome of this analysis was the annual percentage change in the rates. Overall and stratified analyses were conducted to investigate whether the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law may have had a distributional effect on mortality rates due to road traffic accidents depending on sex and age group; a significance level of P < .01 was accepted. : From 1999 to 2016, there were 15,629 deaths due to road traffic accidents in Rio de Janeiro. The effect of the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law on overall mortality rates due to road traffic accidents in Rio de Janeiro was not statistically significant. However, among cyclists and motorcyclists aged ≥60 years and among pedestrians of both sexes and aged ≥20 years, the effect of the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law was to decrease mortality due to road traffic accidents at a yearly rate. : There is evidence of reduced mortality rates due to road traffic accidents among cyclists and motorcyclists aged ≥60 years and among pedestrians of both sexes aged ≥20 years in the second major Brazilian capital 9 years after the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law was adopted.

摘要

: 本研究旨在根据受害者类型、性别和年龄,评估巴西零容忍酒驾法对道路交通伤害死亡率的影响。 : 采用中断时间序列设计,比较 2008 年 6 月 19 日零容忍酒驾法生效前后巴西里约热内卢道路交通伤害死亡率的年变化率。根据受害者类型(行人、骑自行车者、骑摩托车者和车辆乘客)比较每年的死亡率。我们在时间序列分析中使用 Prais-Winsten 自回归程序;该分析的结果是死亡率的年百分比变化。进行了总体和分层分析,以调查零容忍酒驾法是否可能根据性别和年龄组对道路交通伤害死亡率产生分布效应;接受 P<.01 的显著性水平。 : 1999 年至 2016 年,里约热内卢有 15629 人死于道路交通伤害。零容忍酒驾法对里约热内卢道路交通伤害总死亡率的影响无统计学意义。然而,在≥60 岁的骑自行车者和骑摩托车者以及≥20 岁的男女行人中,零容忍酒驾法的效果是每年降低道路交通伤害死亡率。 : 在巴西第二大城市,零容忍酒驾法实施 9 年后,有证据表明≥60 岁的骑自行车者和骑摩托车者以及≥20 岁的男女行人的道路交通伤害死亡率有所下降。

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