National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
School of Geoscience, College of Arts and Sciences, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, USA.
Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 16;11(1):4650. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18398-5.
Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.
汞（Hg）是一种天然存在的元素，它与有机物结合，并在转化为甲基汞后成为一种强效的神经毒素。在这里，我们使用一种基于机制的模型，对低排放和高排放温室气体情景下，因永久冻土融化而导致的汞未来潜在排放量进行了估算。在高排放情景下，到 2200 年，每年从永久冻土释放到大气中的汞排放量与当前全球人为排放相当。到 2100 年，低排放情景下，育空河的模拟汞浓度增加了 14%，而在高排放情景下则增加了一倍。到 2300 年，低排放情景下，鱼类中的汞浓度仍低于美国环境保护署的指导值，但在高排放情景下，育空河的鱼类在 2050 年就会超过该指导值。我们的研究结果表明，低排放情景对水和鱼类中的汞浓度影响较小，而高排放情景则影响较大。
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