Ali Basit, Ullah Arif, Khan Dilawar
Department of Economics, Kohat University of Science & Technology, Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 26000, Pakistan.
Department of Economics, Preston University, Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 26000, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jan;28(4):4691-4703. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10848-3. Epub 2020 Sep 18.
Recently, due to the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere, the global environment has changed dramatically. As a result, climate change, global warming, and environmental degradation-like issues have been raised. Presumably, human beings, as well as the agricultural ecosystem, become most vulnerable to these issues. In this context, the study focuses on the nexus between Indian's agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emission. For the purpose of this study, annual time series data over the time span from 1990 to 2014 was used. The modern techniques, for instance, Johansen, ARDL, and Granger causality, were employed. The Johansen test and ARDL model suggest that carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystems are co-integrated. In the short run, the ARDL model suggests that a 1% increase in biomass-burned crop residues, total pesticides, and stock of livestock would increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.26, 0.3, and 6.58% respectively. The residual diagnostics tests suggest that the ARDL model is stable, reliable, and credible in the present form. The results of the granger causality show that a unidirectional causality was found between carbon dioxide and total heads of livestock, all animal manure applied to the soil, agricultural technology, and total pesticide used in the agricultural sector. In contrast, bidirectional causality was found between the production of biomass-burned crop residues and carbon dioxide emission. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should take preemptive action to reduce the risk of environmental pollution and degradation through synchronized strategies particularly by reducing the amount of biomass-burned crop residues and usage of total pesticides in the country.
近年来，由于大气中二氧化碳排放浓度不断增加，全球环境发生了巨大变化。因此，气候变化、全球变暖和环境退化等问题随之出现。据推测，人类以及农业生态系统在这些问题面前最为脆弱。在此背景下，该研究聚焦于印度农业生态系统与二氧化碳排放之间的联系。为了本研究的目的，使用了1990年至2014年期间的年度时间序列数据。采用了现代技术，例如约翰森检验、自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）和格兰杰因果关系检验。约翰森检验和ARDL模型表明，二氧化碳排放与农业生态系统是协整的。在短期内，ARDL模型表明，生物质燃烧的作物残渣、总农药用量和牲畜存栏量每增加1%，二氧化碳排放量将分别增加0.26%、0.3%和6.58%。残差诊断检验表明，当前形式的ARDL模型是稳定、可靠且可信的。格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明，在二氧化碳与牲畜总头数、施用于土壤的所有动物粪便、农业技术以及农业部门使用的总农药之间发现了单向因果关系。相比之下，在生物质燃烧的作物残渣产量与二氧化碳排放之间发现了双向因果关系。因此，建议政府应采取先发制人的行动，通过同步战略，特别是减少该国生物质燃烧的作物残渣数量和总农药用量来降低环境污染和退化的风险。
