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选定新兴经济体农业生产与二氧化碳排放的因果关系。

Causal relationship between agricultural production and carbon dioxide emissions in selected emerging economies.

机构信息

School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, People's Republic of China.

Accountancy Department, Kumasi Technical University, Box 854, Kumasi, Ghana.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Sep;25(25):24764-24777. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-2523-z. Epub 2018 Jun 20.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-018-2523-z
PMID:29926327
Abstract

Continuous threat posed by climate change caused by carbon dioxide emission has reignited global advocacy to confront its negative ramification with the greatest possible firmness. Global food security and agriculture face major challenges under climate change as a result of the potential negative effect of production and implementation of sectoral action to limit global warming. Overall, agricultural greenhouse emissions continue to rise and the analysis of superior data on emissions from farming, livestock, and fisheries can help countries identify opportunities to contemporaneously reduce emissions and address their food security. This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by examining the causal relationship between agriculture production and carbon dioxide emissions in selected emerging economies for the period 1971 to 2013. The study, therefore, disaggregated agriculture production into crop production index and livestock production index to explicate the distinct and to find individual variable contribution to carbon dioxide emissions. By using FMOLS and DOLS, empirical results indicate that 1% increase in economic growth, crop production index, and livestock production index will cause a proportional increase in carbon dioxide emission by 17%, 28%, and 28% correspondingly, while 1% increase in energy consumption and population improves the environment of emerging economies. The direction of causality among the variables was, accordingly, examined using PMG estimator. Potentially, for emerging countries to achieve Sustainable Development Goal of ensuring zero hunger for their citizenry requires the need to alter their farming production techniques and also adopt agricultural technology method, which is more environmentally friendly.

摘要

二氧化碳排放导致的气候变化持续威胁,再次点燃了全球对抗其负面影响的决心。由于限制全球变暖的部门行动的生产和实施可能产生负面影响,气候变化使全球粮食安全和农业面临重大挑战。总体而言,农业温室气体排放持续上升,对农业、畜牧业和渔业排放的优质数据进行分析可以帮助各国确定同时减少排放和解决粮食安全问题的机会。本研究通过考察 1971 年至 2013 年期间选定新兴经济体的农业生产与二氧化碳排放之间的因果关系,为近期文献做出了贡献。因此,本研究将农业生产细分为作物生产指数和畜牧业生产指数,以阐述其不同之处,并找到个别变量对二氧化碳排放的贡献。通过使用 FMOLS 和 DOLS,实证结果表明,经济增长、作物生产指数和畜牧业生产指数每增长 1%,将分别导致二氧化碳排放相应增加 17%、28%和 28%,而能源消耗和人口每增长 1%则会改善新兴经济体的环境。因此,使用 PMG 估计器检验了变量之间的因果关系方向。为了使新兴国家实现为其公民确保零饥饿的可持续发展目标,可能需要改变其农业生产技术,并采用更环保的农业技术方法。

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