College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, 3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, Shaanxi, 712100, China.
Department of Economics, Kohat University of Science & Technology, Kohat, 26000, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 May;25(14):13938-13955. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-1530-4. Epub 2018 Mar 7.
The increasing trend of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) is the main cause of harmful anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which may result in environmental pollution, global warming, and climate change. These issues are expected to adversely affect the agricultural ecosystem and well-being of the society. In order to minimize food insecurity and prevent hunger, a timely adaptation is desirable to reduce potential losses and to seek alternatives for promoting a global knowledge system for agricultural sustainability. This paper examines the causal relationship between agricultural ecosystem and CO emissions as an environmental pollution indicator in Pakistan from the period 1972 to 2014 by employing Johansen cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and Granger causality approach. The Johansen cointegration results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between the agricultural ecosystem and the CO emissions. The long-run relationship shows that a 1% increase in biomass burned crop residues, emissions of CO equivalent of nitrous oxide (NO) from synthetic fertilizers, stock of livestock, agricultural machinery, cereal production, and other crop productions will increase CO emissions by 1.29, 0.05, 0.45, 0.05, 0.03, and 0.65%, respectively. Further, our finding detects that there is a bidirectional causality of CO emissions with rice area paddy harvested, cereal production, and other crop productions. The impulse response function analysis displays that biomass-burned crop residues, stock of livestock, agriculture machinery, cereal production, and other crop productions are significantly contributing to CO emissions in Pakistan.
大气二氧化碳（CO）浓度不断升高是人为温室气体排放的主要原因，这可能导致环境污染、全球变暖及气候变化等问题，进而对农业生态系统和社会福祉产生不利影响。为了尽量减少粮食不安全，防止饥饿，需要及时采取适应措施，以减少潜在损失，并寻求促进农业可持续性全球知识库的替代方案。本文利用 1972-2014 年巴基斯坦农业生态系统与 CO 排放的因果关系，以 CO 排放作为环境污染指标，通过詹森协整检验、自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型和格兰杰因果检验方法进行了研究。詹森协整检验结果表明，农业生态系统与 CO 排放之间存在显著的长期关系。长期关系表明，生物质燃烧作物残茬、合成肥料排放的一氧化二氮（NO）等效 CO 排放量、牲畜存栏量、农业机械、谷物产量和其他作物产量每增加 1%，CO 排放量将分别增加 1.29%、0.05%、0.45%、0.05%、0.03%和 0.65%。此外，我们的研究结果还发现 CO 排放量与稻谷收获面积、谷物产量和其他作物产量之间存在双向因果关系。脉冲响应函数分析显示，生物质燃烧作物残茬、牲畜存栏量、农业机械、谷物产量和其他作物产量对巴基斯坦 CO 排放有显著贡献。
