College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, 3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, 712100, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Aug;25(24):24488-24499. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-2461-9. Epub 2018 Jun 17.
Sustainable agriculture ensures food security and prevents starvation. However, the need to meet the increasing food demands of the growing population has led to poor and unsustainable agricultural practices, which promote environmental degradation. Given the contributions of agricultural ecosystems to environmental pollution, we investigated the impact of the agricultural ecosystem on environmental pollution in China using time series data from 1960 to 2014. We employed several methods for econometric analysis including the unit root test, Johansen test of cointegration, Granger causality test, and vector error correction model. Evidence based on the long-run elasticity indicates that a 1% increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO) equivalent to nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will increase the emissions of CO by 1.52% in the long run. Similarly, a 1% increase in the area of harvested rice paddy, cereal production, biomass of burned crop residues, and agricultural GDP will increase the carbon dioxide emissions by 0.85, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.22%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among the selected variables considered for the agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, we identified bidirectional causal associations between CO emissions, biomass of burned crop residues, and cereal production. Graphical abstract ᅟ.
可持续农业确保了粮食安全，防止了饥饿。然而，为了满足不断增长的人口对粮食的需求，导致了不良和不可持续的农业做法，从而促进了环境恶化。鉴于农业生态系统对环境污染的贡献，我们利用 1960 年至 2014 年的时间序列数据，研究了中国农业生态系统对环境污染的影响。我们采用了几种计量经济学分析方法，包括单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和向量误差修正模型。基于长期弹性的证据表明，合成肥料中一氧化二氮排放的二氧化碳（CO）当量每增加 1%，长期来看，CO 的排放量将增加 1.52%。同样，水稻、谷物产量、燃烧作物残茬的生物量和农业 GDP 每增加 1%，二氧化碳排放量将分别增加 0.85%、0.63%、0.37%和 0.22%。估计结果表明，所选农业生态系统和二氧化碳排放变量之间存在长期均衡关系。特别是，我们发现二氧化碳排放、燃烧作物残茬的生物量和谷物产量之间存在双向因果关系。
