本福特定律与新冠疫情报告
Benford's Law and COVID-19 reporting.
作者信息
Koch Christoffer, Okamura Ken
机构信息
Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 North Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, United States.
Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1HP, United Kingdom.
出版信息
Econ Lett. 2020 Nov;196:109573. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109573. Epub 2020 Sep 14.
Abstract
Trust in the reported data of contagious diseases in real time is important for policy makers. Media and politicians have cast doubt on Chinese reported data on COVID-19 cases. We find Chinese confirmed infections match the distribution expected in Benford's Law and are similar to that seen in the U.S. and Italy. We identify a more likely candidate for problems in the policy making process: Poor multilateral data sharing on testing and sampling.
摘要
对于政策制定者而言，实时信任传染病报告数据至关重要。媒体和政客对中国上报的新冠病毒病例数据表示怀疑。我们发现中国确诊感染情况符合本福特定律预期的分布，且与美国和意大利的情况相似。我们确定了政策制定过程中更有可能存在问题的一个因素：检测和采样方面多边数据共享不佳。
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