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[用于理解针对新冠疫情防控措施的SIR流行病学模型的数学方法。]

[Mathematical approach of the SIR epidemiological model for the comprehension of the containment measures against the Covid-19.].

作者信息

Wilches Visbal Jorge Homero, Castillo Pedraza Midian Clara

机构信息

Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud. Universidad del Magdalena. Santa Marta. Colombia. ORCID: 0000-0003-3649-5079.

Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud. Universidad del Magdalena. Santa Marta. Colombia. ORCID: 0000-0003-3170-3959.

出版信息

Rev Esp Salud Publica. 2020 Sep 23;94:e202009109.

Abstract

In December 2019, an acute respiratory disease outbreak from zoonotic origin was detected in the city of Wuhan, China. The outbreak's infectious agent was a type of coronavirus never seen. Thenceforth, the Covid-19 disease has rapidly spread to more than 200 countries around the world. To minimize the devastating effects of the virus, the States have adopted epidemiological measures of various kinds that involved enormous economic expenses and the massive use of the media to explain the measures to the entire population. For the prediction and mitigation of infectious events, various epidemiological models, such as SIR, SEIR, MSIR and MSEIR, are used. Among them, the most widely used is the SIR model, which is based on the analysis of the transition of individuals susceptible to infection (S) to the state of infected individuals that infect (I) and, finally, to that of recovered (cured or deceased) (R), by using differential equations. The objective of this article was the mathematical development of the SIR model and its application to predict the course of the Covid-19 pandemic in the city of Santa Marta (Colombia), in order to understand the reason behind several of the measures of containment adopted by the States of the world in the fight against the pandemic.

摘要

2019年12月,中国武汉市发现了一起源自人畜共患的急性呼吸道疾病疫情。此次疫情的传染源是一种从未见过的冠状病毒。此后,新冠疫情迅速蔓延至全球200多个国家。为尽量减少病毒的破坏性影响,各国采取了各种流行病学措施,这涉及巨额经济开支,并大量利用媒体向全体民众解释这些措施。为预测和缓解传染病事件,人们使用了各种流行病学模型,如SIR、SEIR、MSIR和MSEIR。其中,使用最广泛的是SIR模型,该模型通过微分方程分析易感染个体(S)向感染个体(I)状态的转变,最终再到康复(治愈或死亡)个体(R)状态的转变。本文的目的是对SIR模型进行数学推导,并将其应用于预测哥伦比亚圣玛尔塔市的新冠疫情发展过程,以便理解世界各国在抗击疫情过程中采取的若干遏制措施背后的原因。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/391b/11582845/23f23f8a5c1d/1135-5727-resp-94-e202009109-g004.jpg

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