Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jiangsu Province Hospital and Nanjing Medical University First Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Jiangsu Province Hospital and Nanjing Medical University First Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
J Med Virol. 2020 Jul;92(7):841-848. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25827. Epub 2020 Apr 25.
A novel coronavirus pneumonia, first identified in Wuhan City and referred to as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, has been quickly spreading to other cities and countries. To control the epidemic, the Chinese government mandated a quarantine of the Wuhan city on January 23, 2020. To explore the effectiveness of the quarantine of the Wuhan city against this epidemic, transmission dynamics of COVID-19 have been estimated. A well-mixed "susceptible exposed infectious recovered" (SEIR) compartmental model was employed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic based on epidemiological characteristics of individuals, clinical progression of COVID-19, and quarantine intervention measures of the authority. Considering infected individuals as contagious during the latency period, the well-mixed SEIR model fitting results based on the assumed contact rate of latent individuals are within 6-18, which represented the possible impact of quarantine and isolation interventions on disease infections, whereas other parameter were suppose as unchanged under the current intervention. The present study shows that, by reducing the contact rate of latent individuals, interventions such as quarantine and isolation can effectively reduce the potential peak number of COVID-19 infections and delay the time of peak infection.
一种新型冠状病毒肺炎,最初在武汉市发现,世界卫生组织将其命名为 COVID-19,已迅速传播到其他城市和国家。为了控制疫情,中国政府于 2020 年 1 月 23 日对武汉市进行了隔离。为了探讨武汉市对该疫情的隔离效果,我们估计了 COVID-19 的传播动力学。基于个体的流行病学特征、COVID-19 的临床进展以及当局的隔离干预措施,采用一个均匀混合的“易感-暴露-感染-恢复”(SEIR) compartmental 模型来描述 COVID-19 疫情的动态。考虑到潜伏期内感染个体具有传染性,根据假定的潜伏个体接触率进行均匀混合 SEIR 模型拟合的结果在 6-18 之间,这代表了隔离和隔离干预措施对疾病感染的可能影响,而其他参数则假定在当前干预措施下保持不变。本研究表明,通过降低潜伏个体的接触率,隔离和隔离等干预措施可以有效地降低 COVID-19 感染的潜在峰值数量,并延迟感染峰值的时间。
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