Zhang Yu, He Chaobin, Lian Yu, Xiao Huiming
State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Department of Pancreaobiliary Surgery, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China.
Front Oncol. 2020 Aug 27;10:1590. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2020.01590. eCollection 2020.
Orbital rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is a relatively rare primary malignancy occurring in children. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cumulative incidence of cancer-specific death and competing risk of death among RMS patients after surgery and to build nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) based on a large population-based cohort. The records of 217 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with an orbital RMS between 1973 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively analyzed. The 10-, 20-, and 40-years OS rates and cancer-specific mortality were 82.5, 72.2, and 48.9%, respectively, and 14.8, 21.7, and 21.7%, respectively. The established nomograms were well-calibrated and validated, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.901 and 0.944 for OS prediction, 0.923 and 0.904, for CSS prediction in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The values of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 10-, 20-, and 40-years OS and CSS prediction were 0.908, 0.826, and 0.847, and 0.924, 0.863, and 0.863, respectively. The established nomogram showed relatively good performances and could be convenient individualized predictive tools for prognostic prediction in RMS patients.
眼眶横纹肌肉瘤(RMS)是一种相对罕见的发生于儿童的原发性恶性肿瘤。本研究的目的是评估RMS患者术后癌症特异性死亡的累积发生率和死亡的竞争风险,并基于一个大型人群队列构建列线图来预测总生存期(OS)和癌症特异性生存期(CSS)。对1973年至2015年间来自监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库的217例经病理诊断为眼眶RMS的患者记录进行回顾性分析。10年、20年和40年的OS率及癌症特异性死亡率分别为82.5%、72.2%和48.9%,以及14.8%、21.7%和21.7%。所建立的列线图校准良好且经过验证,在训练队列和验证队列中,用于OS预测的一致性指数(C指数)分别为0.901和0.944,用于CSS预测的C指数分别为0.923和0.904。用于10年、20年和40年OS及CSS预测的受试者操作特征曲线(AUC)下面积值分别为0.908、0.826和0.847,以及0.924、0.863和0.863。所建立的列线图表现相对良好,可为RMS患者的预后预测提供方便的个体化预测工具。