He Chaobin, Huang Xin, Zhang Yu, Lin Xiaojun, Li Shengping
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Department of Pancreatobiliary Surgery, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China.
State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Front Oncol. 2020 Jun 30;10:952. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2020.00952. eCollection 2020.
Irreversible electroporation (IRE) is a novel method which was especially suitable for the treatment of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). The purpose of this study was to evaluate probabilities of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with LAPC after IRE treatment and to construct nomograms to predict survival for these patients. Data of patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and medical records of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC). A total of 312 LAPC patients after IRE treatment were included into this study. The 3-year cumulative incidence of cancer-specific mortality for patients with LAPC after IRE treatment was 74.3%. Nomograms for predicting probabilities of OS, CSS, and non-cancer-specific survival (NCSS) were built and calibrated with the concordance index (C-index) and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The established nomograms were well-calibrated, with C-indexes of 0.782 for OS prediction, 0.729 for CSS prediction, and 0.730 for NCSS prediction. Compared with the TNM stage system, the established nomograms displayed higher values of AUC and showed better discriminatory power for predicting OS, CSS, and NCSS. These nomograms were well-calibrated and could serve to guide management of LAPC patients after IRE treatment.
不可逆电穿孔（IRE）是一种特别适用于治疗局部晚期胰腺癌（LAPC）的新方法。本研究的目的是评估IRE治疗后LAPC患者的总生存期（OS）和癌症特异性生存期（CSS）概率，并构建列线图以预测这些患者的生存期。回顾性收集了监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库以及中山大学肿瘤防治中心（SYSUCC）的病历中的患者数据。本研究共纳入312例接受IRE治疗的LAPC患者。IRE治疗后LAPC患者的3年癌症特异性死亡率累积发生率为74.3%。构建了预测OS、CSS和非癌症特异性生存期（NCSS）概率的列线图，并通过一致性指数（C指数）和受试者操作特征曲线下面积（AUC）进行校准。所建立的列线图校准良好，OS预测的C指数为0.782，CSS预测的C指数为0.729，NCSS预测的C指数为0.730。与TNM分期系统相比，所建立的列线图显示出更高的AUC值，并且在预测OS、CSS和NCSS方面具有更好的鉴别力。这些列线图校准良好，可用于指导IRE治疗后LAPC患者的管理。
