文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

PANDEMYC评分:一种易于应用和解释的预测COVID-19相关死亡率的模型。

The PANDEMYC Score. An Easily Applicable and Interpretable Model for Predicting Mortality Associated With COVID-19.

作者信息

Torres-Macho Juan, Ryan Pablo, Valencia Jorge, Pérez-Butragueño Mario, Jiménez Eva, Fontán-Vela Mario, Izquierdo-García Elsa, Fernandez-Jimenez Inés, Álvaro-Alonso Elena, Lazaro Andrea, Alvarado Marta, Notario Helena, Resino Salvador, Velez-Serrano Daniel, Meca Alejandro

机构信息

University Hospital Infanta Leonor, 28031 Madrid, Spain.

Department of Mathematics, Complutense de Madrid University (UCM), 28040 Madrid, Spain.

出版信息

J Clin Med. 2020 Sep 23;9(10):3066. doi: 10.3390/jcm9103066.


DOI:10.3390/jcm9103066
PMID:32977606
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7598151/
Abstract

UNLABELLED: This study aimed to build an easily applicable prognostic model based on routine clinical, radiological, and laboratory data available at admission, to predict mortality in coronavirus 19 disease (COVID-19) hospitalized patients. METHODS: We retrospectively collected clinical information from 1968 patients admitted to a hospital. We built a predictive score based on a logistic regression model in which explicative variables were discretized using classification trees that facilitated the identification of the optimal sections in order to predict inpatient mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19. These sections were translated into a score indicating the probability of a patient's death, thus making the results easy to interpret. RESULTS: Median age was 67 years, 1104 patients (56.4%) were male, and 325 (16.5%) died during hospitalization. Our final model identified nine key features: age, oxygen saturation, smoking, serum creatinine, lymphocytes, hemoglobin, platelets, C-reactive protein, and sodium at admission. The discrimination of the model was excellent in the training, validation, and test samples (AUC: 0.865, 0.808, and 0.883, respectively). We constructed a prognostic scale to determine the probability of death associated with each score. CONCLUSIONS: We designed an easily applicable predictive model for early identification of patients at high risk of death due to COVID-19 during hospitalization.

摘要

未标注:本研究旨在基于入院时可用的常规临床、放射学和实验室数据构建一个易于应用的预后模型,以预测冠状病毒19疾病(COVID-19)住院患者的死亡率。 方法:我们回顾性收集了一家医院收治的1968例患者的临床信息。我们基于逻辑回归模型构建了一个预测评分,其中解释变量使用分类树进行离散化,这有助于识别最佳分段,以预测COVID-19入院患者的住院死亡率。这些分段被转化为一个表明患者死亡概率的评分,从而使结果易于解释。 结果:中位年龄为67岁,1104例患者(56.4%)为男性,325例(16.5%)在住院期间死亡。我们的最终模型确定了九个关键特征:年龄、血氧饱和度、吸烟、血清肌酐、淋巴细胞、血红蛋白、血小板、C反应蛋白和入院时的钠。该模型在训练、验证和测试样本中的辨别力极佳(AUC分别为0.865、0.808和0.883)。我们构建了一个预后量表来确定与每个评分相关的死亡概率。 结论:我们设计了一个易于应用的预测模型,用于在住院期间早期识别因COVID-19有高死亡风险的患者。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2848/7598151/66bb8a7bfaa4/jcm-09-03066-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2848/7598151/66bb8a7bfaa4/jcm-09-03066-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2848/7598151/66bb8a7bfaa4/jcm-09-03066-g001.jpg

相似文献

[1]
The PANDEMYC Score. An Easily Applicable and Interpretable Model for Predicting Mortality Associated With COVID-19.

J Clin Med. 2020-9-23

[2]
Simple demographic characteristics and laboratory findings on admission may predict in-hospital mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection: development and validation of the covid-19 score.

BMC Infect Dis. 2021-9-14

[3]
A machine-learning parsimonious multivariable predictive model of mortality risk in patients with Covid-19.

Sci Rep. 2021-10-27

[4]
Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score.

BMJ. 2020-9-9

[5]
COVID-19: The Development and Validation of a New Mortality Risk Score.

J Clin Med. 2024-3-22

[6]
Development and validation of multivariable prediction models for adverse COVID-19 outcomes in IBD patients.

medRxiv. 2021-1-20

[7]
Development and Validation of a Clinical Risk Score to Predict the Occurrence of Critical Illness in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

JAMA Intern Med. 2020-8-1

[8]
Development and validation of COVID-19 Radiological Risk Score (COVID-RRS): a multivariable radiological score to estimate the in-hospital mortality risk in COVID-19 patients.

Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2023-1

[9]
Machine learning for prediction of in-hospital mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 patients: results from an Italian multicenter study.

J Cardiovasc Med (Hagerstown). 2022-7-1

[10]
Development of Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP), a Calculator to Predict Severe Disease or Death in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

Ann Intern Med. 2021-6

引用本文的文献

[1]
Significant association between asthma and a lower risk of mortality among COVID-19 patients in Spain: A meta-analysis.

Qatar Med J. 2024-7-4

[2]
Cardiopulmonary Complications after Pulmonary Embolism in COVID-19.

Int J Mol Sci. 2024-7-2

[3]
Refining the hospitalization rate: A mixed methods approach to differentiate primary COVID-19 from incidental cases.

Infect Prev Pract. 2024-5-15

[4]
Machine learning-based prediction models for home discharge in patients with COVID-19: Development and evaluation using electronic health records.

PLoS One. 2023

[5]
Rationing scarce healthcare capacity: A study of the ventilator allocation guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prod Oper Manag. 2023-1-22

[6]
Investigation of hs-TnI and sST-2 as Potential Predictors of Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Survived Hospitalization for COVID-19 Pneumonia.

Biomedicines. 2022-11-10

[7]
Comparative analysis of chest radiography and lung ultrasound to predict intra-hospital prognosis of patients admitted for acute SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia (COVID-19).

Med Clin (Engl Ed). 2022-12-9

[8]
Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Severe COVID-19: A Systematic Review and External Validation of Clinical Prediction Rules.

Biomedicines. 2022-9-27

[9]
Machine-learning-derived predictive score for early estimation of COVID-19 mortality risk in hospitalized patients.

PLoS One. 2022

[10]
Cardiovascular Biomarkers for Prediction of in-hospital and 1-Year Post-discharge Mortality in Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia.

Front Med (Lausanne). 2022-6-28

本文引用的文献

[1]
Stop Explaining Black Box Machine Learning Models for High Stakes Decisions and Use Interpretable Models Instead.

Nat Mach Intell. 2019-5

[2]
The low-harm score for predicting mortality in patients diagnosed with COVID-19: A multicentric validation study.

J Am Coll Emerg Physicians Open. 2020-10-15

[3]
Clinical features of COVID-19 mortality: development and validation of a clinical prediction model.

Lancet Digit Health. 2020-9-22

[4]
Risk factors for mortality in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

Aging Male. 2020-12

[5]
COVID-19 and its implications for thrombosis and anticoagulation.

Blood. 2020-6-4

[6]
A Tool for Early Prediction of Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Multicenter Study Using the Risk Nomogram in Wuhan and Guangdong, China.

Clin Infect Dis. 2020-7-28

[7]
The impact of COPD and smoking history on the severity of COVID-19: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

J Med Virol. 2020-5-17

[8]
Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal.

BMJ. 2020-4-7

[9]
Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study.

Lancet. 2020-3-11

[10]
Research electronic data capture (REDCap)--a metadata-driven methodology and workflow process for providing translational research informatics support.

J Biomed Inform. 2009-4

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索