Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Biodemography, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
PLoS One. 2020 Sep 30;15(9):e0238912. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238912. eCollection 2020.
Population aging will pose huge challenges for healthcare systems and will require a promotion of positive attitudes towards older people and the encouragement of careers in geriatrics to attract young professionals into the field and to meet the needs of a rapidly growing number of old-aged patients. We describe the current demographic profile of hospital care use in Denmark and make projections for changes in the patient profile up to 2050.
The Danish population in 2013 (N = 5.63 million) was followed up for inpatient and emergency admissions recorded in Danish hospitals in 2013 using population-based registers. We combined age- and sex-specific hospital care use in 2013 with official population estimates to forecast the profile of hospital days up to 2050 with respect to age and sex.
The total number of hospital days per year is projected to increase by 42% between 2013 and 2050, from 4.66 to 6.72 million days. While small changes are projected for the population aged 0-69, the largest change is projected to occur for the population aged 70+. The 2013 levels were 0.82 and 0.93 million days for men and women aged 70+, respectively. By 2050, these levels are projected to have reached 1.94 and 1.84 million days. While the population aged 70+ accounted for 37.5% of all days in 2013, its contribution is projected to increase to 56.2% by 2050.
Our study shows one possible scenario for changes in the hospital days due to population aging by 2050: Assuming no changes in hospital care use over the forecast period, the absolute contribution of individuals aged 70+ to the total hospital days will more than double, and the relative contribution of persons aged 70+ will account for nearly 60% of all hospital days by 2050, being largest among men.
人口老龄化将给医疗体系带来巨大挑战，需要提倡积极的老龄化态度，并鼓励从事老年医学工作，以吸引年轻专业人员进入该领域，并满足快速增长的老年患者的需求。我们描述了丹麦目前医院护理使用的人口统计学概况，并对 2050 年之前患者特征的变化进行了预测。
利用基于人群的登记系统，对 2013 年丹麦医院记录的 2013 年丹麦 563 万人口的住院和急诊入院情况进行了随访。我们将 2013 年特定年龄和性别的医院护理使用情况与官方人口估计数相结合，预测了 2050 年之前与年龄和性别有关的医院日数情况。
2013 年至 2050 年，每年的医院日总数预计将增加 42%，从 466 万天增加到 672 万天。虽然 0-69 岁人群的变化较小，但预计 70 岁以上人群的变化最大。2013 年，70 岁以上男性和女性的医院日数分别为 0.82 万天和 0.93 万天。到 2050 年，预计这两个数字将分别达到 1.94 万天和 1.84 万天。虽然 70 岁以上人口在 2013 年占所有天数的 37.5%，但到 2050 年，这一比例预计将增加到 56.2%。
我们的研究展示了 2050 年人口老龄化导致医院日数变化的一种可能情况：假设在预测期间医院护理使用没有变化，70 岁以上个体对总医院日数的绝对贡献将增加一倍以上，到 2050 年，70 岁以上人口的相对贡献将占所有医院日数的近 60%，其中男性所占比例最大。
