Kontis Vasilis, Bennett James E, Mathers Colin D, Li Guangquan, Foreman Kyle, Ezzati Majid
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Department of Information, Evidence and Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lancet. 2017 Apr 1;389(10076):1323-1335. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9. Epub 2017 Feb 22.
Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model.
We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically contributed towards the final projections. We applied this approach to project age-specific mortality to 2030 in 35 industrialised countries with high-quality vital statistics data. We used age-specific death rates to calculate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 years, and probability of dying before age 70 years, with life table methods.
Life expectancy is projected to increase in all 35 countries with a probability of at least 65% for women and 85% for men. There is a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth among South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 86·7 years, the same as the highest worldwide life expectancy in 2012, and a 57% probability that it will be higher than 90 years. Projected female life expectancy in South Korea is followed by those in France, Spain, and Japan. There is a greater than 95% probability that life expectancy at birth among men in South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland will surpass 80 years in 2030, and a greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years. Of the countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have some of the lowest projected life expectancy gains for both men and women. The female life expectancy advantage over men is likely to shrink by 2030 in every country except Mexico, where female life expectancy is predicted to increase more than male life expectancy, and in Chile, France, and Greece where the two sexes will see similar gains. More than half of the projected gains in life expectancy at birth in women will be due to enhanced longevity above age 65 years.
There is more than a 50% probability that by 2030, national female life expectancy will break the 90 year barrier, a level that was deemed unattainable by some at the turn of the 21st century. Our projections show continued increases in longevity, and the need for careful planning for health and social services and pensions.
UK Medical Research Council and US Environmental Protection Agency.
为了规划卫生和社会服务以及养老金，需要对未来的死亡率和预期寿命进行预测。我们的目标是采用一种考虑到预测模型选择相关不确定性的方法，来预测各国特定年龄的死亡率和预期寿命。
我们开发了一个由21个预测模型组成的集合，所有模型都对最终预测有概率贡献。我们将这种方法应用于35个拥有高质量人口动态统计数据的工业化国家，以预测到2030年特定年龄的死亡率。我们使用特定年龄死亡率，通过寿命表方法计算出生时和65岁时的预期寿命，以及70岁前死亡的概率。
预计所有35个国家的预期寿命都会增加，女性增加的概率至少为65%，男性为85%。2030年韩国女性出生时的预期寿命有90%的概率会高于86.7岁，这与2012年全球最高预期寿命相同，且有57%的概率会高于90岁。预计韩国女性预期寿命之后依次是法国、西班牙和日本的女性。2030年韩国、澳大利亚和瑞士男性出生时的预期寿命有超过95%的概率会超过80岁，且有超过27%的概率会超过85岁。在研究的国家中，美国、日本、瑞典、希腊、马其顿和塞尔维亚的男性和女性预期寿命增长预计是最低的。到2030年，除墨西哥（预计女性预期寿命增长超过男性）、智利、法国和希腊（两性预期寿命增长相似）外，每个国家女性相对于男性的预期寿命优势可能会缩小。出生时女性预期寿命增长的一半以上将归因于65岁以上人群寿命的延长。
到2030年，国家女性预期寿命超过90岁这一在21世纪之交被一些人认为无法实现的水平，其概率超过50%。我们的预测表明预期寿命将持续增长，并且需要对卫生和社会服务以及养老金进行精心规划。
英国医学研究理事会和美国环境保护局。
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