School of Business, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266525, China.
School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Sep 30;17(19):7162. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17197162.
Awareness of the requested quantity and characteristics of emergency supplies is crucial for facilitating an efficient relief operation. With the aim of focusing on the quantitative study of immediate food supplies, this article estimates the numerical autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) model based on the actual data of 14 key commodities in the Sendai City of Japan during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Although the temporal patterns of key food commodity groups are qualitatively similar, the results show that they follow different ARIMA processes, with different autoregressive moving averages and difference order patterns. A key finding is that 3 of the 14 items are significantly related to the number of temporary residents in shelters, revealing that the relatively low number of different items makes it easier to deploy these key supplies or develop regional purchase agreements so as to promptly obtain them from distributors.
了解应急物资的需求量和特性对于促进高效救援行动至关重要。本文旨在关注即时食品供应的定量研究，基于日本仙台市在 2011 年东北地震期间 14 种关键商品的实际数据，对数值自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型进行了估计。尽管关键食品商品组的时间模式在质量上相似，但结果表明它们遵循不同的 ARIMA 过程，具有不同的自回归移动平均值和差分阶模式。一个重要的发现是，14 项中的 3 项与避难所中临时居民的数量有显著关系，这表明相对较低数量的不同项目使得这些关键物资的部署或制定区域采购协议变得更加容易，以便能够从分销商处迅速获得这些物资。
