School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, China.
Postdoctoral Research Station, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Feb;28(6):6843-6865. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10860-7. Epub 2020 Oct 3.
In this paper, the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) countries, which play an increasingly significant role in combating climate change, are selected as the research objects. First, we investigate the driving factors of the evolution of carbon emissions in the BASIC group from 2000 to 2016. Second, we use the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the potential evolution trend of carbon emissions in the benchmark scenario, optimization scenario, and enhanced scenario in the BASIC group from 2017 to 2030 to judge whether the countries can achieve their own autonomous contribution goals. Third, we evaluate whether the BASIC INDC can provide practical support for making the global temperature control goals described in the Paris Agreement. The results show that first, the contribution rate of the energy consumption structure and population size to the carbon emissions of the BASIC are low, and the contributions of R&D efficiency, R&D intensity, and investment intensity to the carbon emission change in the BASIC group are more prominent. Second, under the benchmark scenario, Brazil, South Africa, India, and China from the difference between the complete INDC targets respectively is 265.50 Mt, 207.86 Mt, 1034.70 Mt, and 4660.82 Mt. Under the optimization scenario, China could meet the INDC goals. The gap between Brazil, South Africa, and India is 60.06 Mt, 9.50 Mt, and 413.74 Mt, respectively. Under the enhanced scenario, China and South Africa could meet the INDC target, while Brazil and India are 15.69 Mt and 228.28 Mt away from the INDC target, respectively. Third, although the INDC goals of Brazil and India can achieve the carbon reduction allocated under the 2 °C targets, the INDC targets submitted by the BASIC are not enough to reach the carbon reduction allocated under the global 1.5 °C destination; Brazil, South Africa, India, and China's gap is 64.14 Mt, 246.15 Mt, 236.84 Mt, 3399.64 Mt, respectively. Fourth, Brazil, South Africa, and China should increase its R&D on energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, and India should develop reasonable population policies and green economic development policies.
本文选取在应对气候变化中发挥着日益重要作用的 BASIC（巴西、南非、印度、中国）国家作为研究对象。首先，我们考察了 2000—2016 年 BASIC 国家碳排放演变的驱动因素。其次，我们采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法分析了 2017—2030 年 BASIC 国家基准情景、优化情景和强化情景下碳排放的潜在演变趋势，以判断各国能否实现自主贡献目标。再次，我们评估了 BASIC INDC 能否为实现《巴黎协定》所描述的全球温控目标提供切实支持。结果表明：第一，能源消费结构和人口规模对 BASIC 国家碳排放的贡献率较低，研发效率、研发强度和投资强度对 BASIC 国家碳排放变化的贡献更为显著。第二，在基准情景下，巴西、南非、印度和中国分别离完全 INDC 目标的差距为 265.50 Mt、207.86 Mt、1034.70 Mt 和 4660.82 Mt。在优化情景下，中国能够实现 INDC 目标，巴西、南非和印度与 INDC 目标的差距分别为 60.06 Mt、9.50 Mt 和 413.74 Mt。在强化情景下，中国和南非能够实现 INDC 目标，而巴西和印度分别距离 INDC 目标还有 15.69 Mt 和 228.28 Mt。第三，虽然巴西和印度的 INDC 目标可以实现 2℃目标下分配的碳减排，但 BASIC 提交的 INDC 目标不足以达到全球 1.5℃目标下分配的碳减排；巴西、南非、印度和中国的差距分别为 64.14 Mt、246.15 Mt、236.84 Mt、3399.64 Mt。第四，巴西、南非和中国应加大节能和减排技术研发力度，印度应制定合理的人口政策和绿色经济发展政策。
