Evaluation of emission reduction targets contributed by BASIC countries from the perspective of global temperature control targets.

In this paper, the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) countries, which play an increasingly significant role in combating climate change, are selected as the research objects. First, we investigate the driving factors of the evolution of carbon emissions in the BASIC group from 2000 to 2016. Second, we use the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the potential evolution trend of carbon emissions in the benchmark scenario, optimization scenario, and enhanced scenario in the BASIC group from 2017 to 2030 to judge whether the countries can achieve their own autonomous contribution goals. Third, we evaluate whether the BASIC INDC can provide practical support for making the global temperature control goals described in the Paris Agreement. The results show that first, the contribution rate of the energy consumption structure and population size to the carbon emissions of the BASIC are low, and the contributions of R&D efficiency, R&D intensity, and investment intensity to the carbon emission change in the BASIC group are more prominent. Second, under the benchmark scenario, Brazil, South Africa, India, and China from the difference between the complete INDC targets respectively is 265.50 Mt, 207.86 Mt, 1034.70 Mt, and 4660.82 Mt. Under the optimization scenario, China could meet the INDC goals. The gap between Brazil, South Africa, and India is 60.06 Mt, 9.50 Mt, and 413.74 Mt, respectively. Under the enhanced scenario, China and South Africa could meet the INDC target, while Brazil and India are 15.69 Mt and 228.28 Mt away from the INDC target, respectively. Third, although the INDC goals of Brazil and India can achieve the carbon reduction allocated under the 2 °C targets, the INDC targets submitted by the BASIC are not enough to reach the carbon reduction allocated under the global 1.5 °C destination; Brazil, South Africa, India, and China's gap is 64.14 Mt, 246.15 Mt, 236.84 Mt, 3399.64 Mt, respectively. Fourth, Brazil, South Africa, and China should increase its R&D on energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, and India should develop reasonable population policies and green economic development policies.