Almond Douglas, Du Xinming
Columbia University, United States of America.
NBER, United States of America.
Econ Lett. 2020 Dec;197:109590. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109590. Epub 2020 Sep 25.
Technology and social media use are increasingly associated with delays in nightly sleep. Here, we consider the timing of President Trump's official Twitter account posts as a proxy for sleep duration and how it relates to his public performance. The President wakes around 6am, a routine which has not changed since early 2017. In contrast, the frequency of Twitter from under one day per week in 2017 to three days a week in 2020. The President's increased late-night activity is not accounted for by increases in the frequency of his use of social media over time, his travel schedule, or seasonality. On the day following one where he posts late at night, his Twitter followers interact less with his posts, described as "official statements by the President of the United States". He receives 7400 fewer likes per tweet, 1300 fewer retweets per tweet, and 1400 fewer replies per tweet after a late night (drops of 6.5%-8%). Tweets aside, the President's speeches and interview transcripts have previously been coded for their dominant emotion through text analysis. On the day following a late night, the President's inferred emotion is less likely to be "happy" and nearly three times more likely to be "angry" in his interviews and speeches. Finally, the 2020 election odds of the President's chief opponent also increase after a late night, while the President's are unchanged. The pattern we document is consistent with a progressive shortening of the President's sleep over his first term and compromised performance from sleep deprivation.
科技和社交媒体的使用越来越多地与夜间睡眠延迟相关。在此,我们将特朗普总统官方推特账户的发文时间视为睡眠时间的一个指标,以及它与他的公开表现之间的关系。总统大约早上6点起床,自2017年初以来这一作息并未改变。相比之下,推特发文频率从2017年的每周不到一天增加到2020年的每周三天。总统深夜活动的增加并不能通过他使用社交媒体的频率随时间的增加、他的旅行日程或季节性来解释。在他深夜发文后的第二天,他的推特粉丝与他的推文互动减少,这些推文被描述为“美国总统的官方声明”。深夜发文后,他每条推文获得的点赞数减少7400个,转发数减少1300个,回复数减少1400个(降幅为6.5%-8%)。撇开推文不谈,总统的演讲和采访记录此前已通过文本分析对其主导情绪进行了编码。在深夜之后的第二天,总统在采访和演讲中推断出的情绪不太可能是“高兴”,而“愤怒”的可能性几乎增加了两倍。最后,总统主要对手在2020年的选举胜算在深夜之后也增加了,而总统的胜算则保持不变。我们记录的这种模式与总统在其第一个任期内睡眠时间逐渐缩短以及睡眠不足导致表现受损是一致的。