Ubaid Ayesha, Hussain Farookh, Charles Jonathan
University of Technology Sydney, 15 Broadway, Ultimo, 2007, Australia.
Mizzen Group, Cicada Innovation, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Knowl Based Syst. 2020 Dec 27;210:106483. doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2020.106483. Epub 2020 Sep 28.
The shipping industry is fairly volatile pertaining to shipment pricing. To handle this volatility, two types of pricing strategies are employed in the shipping sector, contract market pricing and spot pricing. The contract market offers a fixed shipment price for a known cargo task over a set period, with secured booking space in periods of high demand. The spot market has a fluctuating shipment price, where one can benefit from lower prices than contract rate shipment prices in the low season, but face escalating shipment prices and less certainty of being able to secure a booking on a particular vessel in peak season, as space is reserved for contracted customers. However, both the pricing strategies followed have no relationship between current shipment demand and available shipping capacity and shipment prices are quoted based on predefined price lists (hard copy). This paper addresses the research gap of optimal spot shipment price calculation based on current shipment demand and available shipping capacity. To do so, we have developed a model that utilizes historical data to calculate spot pricing for container shipments. The proposed model is capable of calculating shipment spot prices based on shipment demand and capacity. Data from various sources was gathered to generate a shipping dataset for three years (i.e. from 2016 until 2018). Regression and correlation analysis are used to quantify research outcomes. Results have shown that the proposed model significantly increases the correlation between shipment price and shipment demand from 0.33 to 0.88 and available capacity from to 0.35 respectively.
航运业在运费定价方面相当不稳定。为应对这种不稳定情况，航运部门采用了两种定价策略，即合同市场定价和即期定价。合同市场为已知货物任务在设定时间段内提供固定运费价格，在需求旺盛时期有保证的订舱空间。即期市场的运费价格波动不定，在淡季时，人们可以受益于比合同费率运费价格更低的价格，但在旺季则面临运费价格不断上涨以及能否在特定船舶上订到舱位的确定性较低的问题，因为舱位是为签约客户预留的。然而，所采用的这两种定价策略都与当前的货运需求和可用运力无关，运费价格是根据预定义的价目表（硬拷贝）报价的。本文解决了基于当前货运需求和可用运力计算最优即期运费价格的研究空白。为此，我们开发了一个利用历史数据来计算集装箱货运即期定价的模型。所提出的模型能够根据货运需求和运力来计算货运即期价格。从各种来源收集数据以生成一个为期三年（即从2016年到2018年）的航运数据集。使用回归和相关分析来量化研究结果。结果表明，所提出的模型分别将货运价格与货运需求之间的相关性从0.33显著提高到0.88，以及将与可用运力之间的相关性从[此处原文缺失相关数据]提高到0.35。
