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洲际班轮运输服务长途运输中集装箱舱位预订取消的概率估计模型

Probability estimation model for the cancellation of container slot booking in long-haul transports of intercontinental liner shipping services.

作者信息

Zhao Hui, Meng Qiang, Wang Yadong

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117576, Singapore.

School of Economics & Management, Nanjing University of Science & Technology, Nanjing 210094, China.

出版信息

Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol. 2020 Oct;119:102731. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2020.102731. Epub 2020 Aug 8.

DOI:10.1016/j.trc.2020.102731
PMID:32834686
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7414785/
Abstract

The intercontinental liner shipping services transport containers between two continents and they are crucial for the profitability of a global liner shipping company. In the daily operations of an intercontinental liner shipping service, however, container slot bookings from customers can be freely cancelled during a booking period, which causes loss of revenue and low utilization of ship capacity. Though a pain-point of the liner shipping industry, the container slot cancellation problem has not yet been well investigated in the literature. To fill this research gap, this study aims to estimate the probability for the cancellation of container slot booking in the long haul transports of the intercontinental liner shipping service by considering the primary influential factors of cancellation behavior. To achieve the objective, a container slot booking data-driven model is developed by means of a time-to-event modeling technique. To incorporate the effect of booking region on the cancellation probability, we introduce the frailty term in the model to capture the regionality of the container shipping market. Our case study with real slot booking data shows that the developed model performs well in forecasting the loaded containers of the slot booking requests. In addition, we shed light on how the internal factors of slot booking and external factors of shipping market influence the probability of cancellation.

摘要

洲际班轮运输服务在两大洲之间运输集装箱，对全球班轮运输公司的盈利能力至关重要。然而，在洲际班轮运输服务的日常运营中，客户的集装箱舱位预订在预订期内可以自由取消，这会导致收入损失和船舶运力利用率低下。尽管集装箱舱位取消问题是班轮运输行业的一个痛点，但在文献中尚未得到充分研究。为了填补这一研究空白，本研究旨在通过考虑取消行为的主要影响因素，估计洲际班轮运输服务长途运输中集装箱舱位预订取消的概率。为实现这一目标，借助生存时间建模技术开发了一个集装箱舱位预订数据驱动模型。为了纳入预订地区对取消概率的影响，我们在模型中引入脆弱项以捕捉集装箱航运市场的区域性。我们对实际舱位预订数据的案例研究表明，所开发的模型在预测舱位预订请求的载货集装箱方面表现良好。此外，我们还揭示了舱位预订的内部因素和航运市场的外部因素如何影响取消概率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/7c858784e0c2/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/44c0342142dd/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/4444d5740d9f/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/750cfeb8461b/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/7ec2aa364fd3/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/fe51e0215c7f/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/593d8a4568df/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/6d7ec7906620/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/8ce2bbd69d0a/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/ea08d4368486/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/7c858784e0c2/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/44c0342142dd/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/4444d5740d9f/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/750cfeb8461b/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/7ec2aa364fd3/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/fe51e0215c7f/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/593d8a4568df/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/6d7ec7906620/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/8ce2bbd69d0a/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/ea08d4368486/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c5a/7414785/7c858784e0c2/gr10_lrg.jpg

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