Inagaki Kelly Y, Pennino Maria Grazia, Floeter Sergio R, Hay Mark E, Longo Guilherme O
Laboratório de Ecologia Marinha, Departamento de Oceanografia e Limnologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil.
Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Vigo (Pontevedra), Spain.
Glob Chang Biol. 2020 Dec;26(12):6805-6812. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15346. Epub 2020 Oct 5.
Interactions among species are likely to change geographically due to climate-driven species range shifts and in intensity due to physiological responses to increasing temperatures. Marine ectotherms experience temperatures closer to their upper thermal limits due to the paucity of temporary thermal refugia compared to those available to terrestrial organisms. Thermal limits of marine ectotherms also vary among species and trophic levels, making their trophic interactions more prone to changes as oceans warm. We assessed how temperature affects reef fish trophic interactions in the Western Atlantic and modeled projections of changes in fish occurrence, biomass, and feeding intensity across latitudes due to climate change. Under ocean warming, tropical reefs will experience diminished trophic interactions, particularly herbivory and invertivory, potentially reinforcing algal dominance in this region. Tropicalization events are more likely to occur in the northern hemisphere, where feeding by tropical herbivores is predicted to expand from the northern Caribbean to extratropical reefs. Conversely, feeding by omnivores is predicted to decrease in this area with minor increases in the Caribbean and southern Brazil. Feeding by invertivores declines across all latitudes in future predictions, jeopardizing a critical trophic link. Most changes are predicted to occur by 2050 and can significantly affect ecosystem functioning, causing dominance shifts and the rise of novel ecosystems.
由于气候驱动的物种范围变化，物种间的相互作用可能会在地理上发生改变；而由于对温度升高的生理反应，其强度也可能发生变化。与陆地生物相比，海洋变温动物因缺乏临时热避难所而经历更接近其热上限的温度。海洋变温动物的热极限在物种和营养级之间也有所不同，这使得它们的营养相互作用在海洋变暖时更容易发生变化。我们评估了温度如何影响西大西洋珊瑚礁鱼类的营养相互作用，并模拟了气候变化导致的鱼类分布、生物量和摄食强度在不同纬度的变化预测。在海洋变暖的情况下，热带珊瑚礁的营养相互作用将减少，尤其是食草和食无脊椎动物行为，这可能会加强该地区藻类的优势地位。热带化事件更有可能发生在北半球，预计热带食草动物的摄食范围将从加勒比海北部扩展到温带珊瑚礁。相反，预计该地区杂食动物的摄食将减少，而加勒比海和巴西南部则略有增加。在未来的预测中，食无脊椎动物的摄食在所有纬度都会下降，危及关键的营养联系。预计大多数变化将在2050年之前发生，并可能显著影响生态系统功能，导致优势地位的转变和新型生态系统的出现。
