Lima Luciana Shigihara, Gherardi Douglas Francisco Marcolino, Pezzi Luciano Ponzi, Passos Leilane Gonçalves Dos, Endo Clarissa Akemi Kajiya, Quimbayo Juan Pablo
Laboratory of Ocean and Atmosphere Studies (LOA), Earth Observation and Geoinformatics Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, 5020, Bergen, Norway.
Sci Rep. 2021 May 14;11(1):10339. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89192-6.
Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean surface currents between - 0.6 to 0.5 m s relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce demographic connectivity and increase the isolation of oceanic islands. The simulation of organismal response to ocean warming shows that acclimation can significantly improve (p < 0.001) particle survival, promoting connectivity and tropicalization of MPAs, with potential impacts on their functional integrity and long-term resilience.
预计未来的气候情景将呈现热带海洋变暖以及表层洋流变化，这可能会影响海洋生物的生存以及海洋保护区（MPA）网络的连通性。我们通过对运行RCP 8.5温室气体排放轨迹的HadGEM2-ES地球系统模型进行降尺度处理，模拟了气候变化对南大西洋9个海洋保护区中鹦嘴鱼种群连通性的区域影响。结果表明，相对于当前状况，西南热带大西洋海面温度（SST）升高1.8至4.5摄氏度，平均表层洋流变化在-0.6至0.5米/秒之间，出现了热带化情景。高死亡率将降低种群连通性，并增加海洋岛屿的孤立性。对生物对海洋变暖反应的模拟表明，驯化可显著提高（p < 0.001）粒子存活率，促进海洋保护区的连通性和热带化，对其功能完整性和长期恢复力产生潜在影响。
