Technical Division, United Nations Population Fund, New York, New York, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 6;15(10):e0238782. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238782. eCollection 2020.
In 2015, UN member states committed to eliminate female genital mutilation (FGM) by 2030 as part of the Sustainable Development Agenda. To reach this goal, interventions need to be targeted and guided by the best available evidence. To date, however, estimates of the number of girls and women affected by FGM and their trends over time and geographic space have been limited by the availability, specificity and quality of population-level data. We present new estimates based on all publicly available nationally representative surveys collected since the 1990s that contain both information on FGM status and on the age at which FGM occurred. Using survival analysis, we generate estimates of FGM risk by single year of age for all countries with available data, and for rural and urban areas separately. The likelihood of experiencing FGM has decreased at the global level, but progress has been starkly uneven between countries. The available data indicate no progress in reducing FGM risk in Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali and Guinea. In addition, rural and urban areas have diverged over the last two decades, with FGM declining more rapidly in urban areas. We describe limitations in the availability and quality of data on FGM occurrence and age-at-FGM. Based on current trends, the SDG goal of eliminating FGM by 2030 is out of reach, and the pace at which the practice is being abandoned would need to accelerate to eliminate FGM by 2030. The heterogeneity in trends between countries and rural vs urban areas offers an opportunity to contrast countries where FGM is in rapid decline and explore potential policy lessons and programmatic implications for countries where the practice of FGM appears to remain entrenched.
2015 年，联合国会员国承诺到 2030 年消除女性生殖器切割（FGM），这是可持续发展议程的一部分。为了实现这一目标，干预措施需要以最佳现有证据为指导。然而，迄今为止，女性生殖器切割受影响的女孩和妇女人数及其随时间和地理空间的趋势的估计受到人口水平数据的可用性、特异性和质量的限制。我们根据自 1990 年代以来收集的所有公开提供的具有代表性的全国调查提出了新的估计数，这些调查包含关于女性生殖器切割状况和发生女性生殖器切割年龄的信息。使用生存分析，我们为所有有数据的国家以及农村和城市地区分别生成了按年龄单一年龄的女性生殖器切割风险估计数。在全球一级，经历女性生殖器切割的可能性有所下降，但各国之间的进展差异巨大。现有数据表明，冈比亚、几内亚比绍、马里和几内亚在减少女性生殖器切割风险方面没有取得进展。此外，在过去二十年中，农村和城市地区出现了分歧，城市地区的女性生殖器切割率下降得更快。我们描述了关于女性生殖器切割发生和女性生殖器切割年龄的数据的可用性和质量方面的限制。根据目前的趋势，到 2030 年消除女性生殖器切割的可持续发展目标无法实现，而且需要加快这种做法的放弃速度，以便到 2030 年消除女性生殖器切割。各国之间以及农村与城市地区之间的趋势差异为对比迅速减少女性生殖器切割的国家提供了机会，并探讨了潜在的政策经验教训和对女性生殖器切割做法似乎仍然根深蒂固的国家的方案影响。
