Garcia Leandro Pereira, Traebert Jefferson, Boing Alexandra Crispim, Santos Grazielli Faria Zimmer, Pedebôs Lucas Alexandre, d'Orsi Eleonora, Prado Paulo Inacio, Veras Maria Amelia de Sousa Mascena, Boava Giuliano, Boing Antonio Fernando
Gerência de Inteligência e Informação, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Florianópolis - Florianópolis (SC), Brasil.
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina - Florianópolis (SC), Brasil.
Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2020 Sep 30;23:e200091. doi: 10.1590/1980-549720200091. eCollection 2020.
To analyze the association between the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 and the decisions made by the municipal government of Florianópolis (Brazil) regarding social distancing.
We analyzed new cases of COVID-19 identified in Florianópolis residents between February 1 and July 14, 2020, using a nowcasting approach. Decrees related to COVID-19 published in the Official Gazette of the Municipality between February 1 and July 14, 2020 were also analyzed. Based on the actions proposed in the decrees, whether they loosened social distancing measures, or increased or maintained existing restrictions, was analyzed, thus creating a Social Distancing Index. Time-dependent reproduction numbers (Rt) for a period of 14 days prior to each decree were calculated. A matrix was constructed associating the classification of each decree and the Rt values, analyzing the consonance or dissonance between the potential dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 and the actions of the decrees.
A total of 5,374 cases of COVID-19 and 26 decrees were analyzed. Nine decrees increased social distancing measures, nine maintained them, and eight loosened them. Of the 26 actions, 9 were consonant and 17 dissonant with the tendency indicated by the Rt. Dissonance was observed in all of the decrees that maintained the distance measures or loosened them. The fastest expansion in the number of new cases and the greatest amount of dissonant decrees was found in the last two months analyzed.
There was an important divergence between municipal measures of social distancing with epidemiological indicators at the time of each political decision.
分析严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）的传播潜力与弗洛里亚诺波利斯市（巴西）市政府关于社交距离的决策之间的关联。
我们采用即时预测方法分析了2020年2月1日至7月14日期间弗洛里亚诺波利斯居民中确诊的新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）新病例。还分析了2020年2月1日至7月14日期间在该市官方公报上发布的与COVID-19相关的法令。根据法令中提出的行动，分析其是否放宽了社交距离措施，或增加或维持了现有限制，从而创建了一个社交距离指数。计算了每项法令前14天的时间依赖繁殖数（Rt）。构建了一个矩阵，将每项法令的分类与Rt值相关联，分析SARS-CoV-2的潜在传播与法令行动之间的一致性或不一致性。
共分析了5374例COVID-19病例和26项法令。9项法令加强了社交距离措施，9项维持不变，8项予以放宽。在这26项行动中，9项与Rt显示的趋势一致，17项不一致。在所有维持或放宽距离措施的法令中均观察到不一致情况。在分析的最后两个月中，新病例数量增长最快，不一致的法令数量最多。
在每项政治决策时，城市社交距离措施与流行病学指标之间存在重大差异。
