Department of Surgery, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Department of Surgery, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
J Surg Res. 2021 Feb;258:265-271. doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2020.08.074. Epub 2020 Oct 8.
This global burden of burn injury is suffered disproportionately by people in low-income and middle-income countries, where 70% of all burns occur. Models based in high-income countries to prognosticate burn mortality treat age as a linearly increasing risk factor. It is unclear whether this relationship is similar in resource-limited settings.
We analyzed patients from the Kamuzu Central Hospital Burn Registry in Lilongwe, Malawi, from 2011 to 2019. We examined the relationship between burn-associated mortality and age using adjusted survival analysis over 60 d, categorized into four groups: (1) younger children <5 y; (2) older children 5-17 y; (3) adults 18-40 y; and (4) older adults >40 y.
A total of 2499 patients were included. Most patients were <5 y old (n = 1444) with only 133 patients >40 y. Older adults had the highest crude mortality at 34.6% and older children with the lowest at 13%. Compared to younger children, the hazard ratio adjusted for sex, percent total body surface area, and operative intervention was 0.59 (95% confidence interval, 0.44, 0.79) for older children and 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.40, 0.76) for adults. Older adults were statistically similar to younger children.
We show in this cohort study of burn-injured patients in a resource-limited environment that the relationship between mortality and age is not linear and that the use of age-categorized mortality prediction models is more accurate in delineating mortality characteristics. Categorizing age based on local burn epidemiology will help describe burn mortality characteristics more accurately, leading to better-informed management strategies aimed at attenuating burn mortality for different populations.
全球烧伤负担不成比例地落在中低收入国家的人群身上,而这些国家发生了 70%的所有烧伤。以高收入国家为基础预测烧伤死亡率的模型将年龄视为线性递增的危险因素。在资源有限的环境中,这种关系是否相似尚不清楚。
我们分析了来自马拉维利隆圭卡穆祖中央医院烧伤登记处的 2011 年至 2019 年的患者。我们使用 60 天的调整后生存分析来检验与烧伤相关的死亡率与年龄之间的关系,分为四个年龄组:(1)幼儿<5 岁;(2)较大儿童 5-17 岁;(3)成年人 18-40 岁;(4)老年成人>40 岁。
共纳入 2499 例患者。大多数患者年龄<5 岁(n=1444),仅有 133 例年龄>40 岁。老年患者的死亡率最高,为 34.6%,而较大儿童的死亡率最低,为 13%。与幼儿相比,调整性别、体表面积百分比和手术干预后,年龄较大儿童的风险比为 0.59(95%置信区间,0.44,0.79),而成年人的风险比为 0.55(95%置信区间,0.40,0.76)。老年患者与幼儿的差异无统计学意义。
我们在这项资源有限的环境中烧伤患者的队列研究中表明,死亡率与年龄之间的关系不是线性的,并且使用基于年龄的死亡率预测模型更能准确地描绘死亡率特征。根据当地烧伤流行病学对年龄进行分类将有助于更准确地描述烧伤死亡率特征,从而制定出更好的管理策略,以减轻不同人群的烧伤死亡率。