The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA.
Sci Data. 2020 Oct 12;7(1):335. doi: 10.1038/s41597-020-00663-3.
Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate-biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth's history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.
古气候数据被用于生态进化模型中,以增进对生物地理过程的了解,这些过程通过时间推动生物多样性模式的形成,为过去的气候-生物多样性动态提供了窗口。将这些模型应用于过去和未来气候变化的协调模拟,可以增强对生物多样性变化的预测。StableClim 为海洋和陆地领域提供了从 21,000 年前到 2100 年的气候稳定性的连续估计,其空间尺度包括生物地理区域和气候带。气候稳定性是通过空气温度和降水的年趋势和可变性以及相关的信噪比来量化的。区域和全球平均温度趋势的自然变异性的阈值允许识别地球历史上气候条件快速(或缓慢)变暖或变冷的时期,并在这些加速变化时期本地(网格单元)估计气候稳定性。模型模拟通过与独立的古气候和观测数据进行验证。通过 StableClim 访问的气候稳定性预测将有助于理解气候在塑造过去、现在和未来生物多样性模式方面的作用。