Suppr超能文献

StableClim,在多个空间尺度上从 21000 BP 到 2100 CE 的气候稳定性的连续预测。

StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales.

机构信息

The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA.

出版信息

Sci Data. 2020 Oct 12;7(1):335. doi: 10.1038/s41597-020-00663-3.

Abstract

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate-biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth's history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.

摘要

古气候数据被用于生态进化模型中,以增进对生物地理过程的了解,这些过程通过时间推动生物多样性模式的形成,为过去的气候-生物多样性动态提供了窗口。将这些模型应用于过去和未来气候变化的协调模拟,可以增强对生物多样性变化的预测。StableClim 为海洋和陆地领域提供了从 21,000 年前到 2100 年的气候稳定性的连续估计,其空间尺度包括生物地理区域和气候带。气候稳定性是通过空气温度和降水的年趋势和可变性以及相关的信噪比来量化的。区域和全球平均温度趋势的自然变异性的阈值允许识别地球历史上气候条件快速(或缓慢)变暖或变冷的时期,并在这些加速变化时期本地(网格单元)估计气候稳定性。模型模拟通过与独立的古气候和观测数据进行验证。通过 StableClim 访问的气候稳定性预测将有助于理解气候在塑造过去、现在和未来生物多样性模式方面的作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ba0/7550347/199d8a013782/41597_2020_663_Fig1_HTML.jpg

相似文献

2
Geographically divergent evolutionary and ecological legacies shape mammal biodiversity in the global tropics and subtropics.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jan 21;117(3):1559-1565. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1910489116. Epub 2019 Dec 16.
3
Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.
Ecology. 2008 Nov;89(11 Suppl):S24-38. doi: 10.1890/07-0550.1.
4
Dynamically-downscaled probabilistic projections of precipitation changes: A Canadian case study.
Environ Res. 2016 Jul;148:86-101. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.03.019. Epub 2016 Mar 29.
6
Matching the multiple scales of conservation with the multiple scales of climate change.
Conserv Biol. 2010 Feb;24(1):51-62. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01409.x.
8
Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.
PLoS One. 2015 Oct 14;10(10):e0140486. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140486. eCollection 2015.
9
Detecting climatic change signals: are there any "fingerprints"?
Science. 1994 Jan 21;263(5145):341-7. doi: 10.1126/science.263.5145.341.

引用本文的文献

1
Mismatch in reindeer resilience to past and future warming signals ongoing declines.
Sci Adv. 2025 Aug 15;11(33):eadu0175. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adu0175. Epub 2025 Aug 13.
2
Global decoupling of functional and phylogenetic diversity in plant communities.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2025 Feb;9(2):237-248. doi: 10.1038/s41559-024-02589-0. Epub 2024 Dec 3.
3
Evolutionary imbalance, climate and human history jointly shape the global biogeography of alien plants.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2023 Oct;7(10):1633-1644. doi: 10.1038/s41559-023-02172-z. Epub 2023 Aug 31.
4
Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns.
Sci Adv. 2022 Aug 5;8(31):eabj2271. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abj2271.
5
Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity.
Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Oct;28(19):5849-5858. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16328. Epub 2022 Jul 14.

本文引用的文献

1
A simulated Northern Hemisphere terrestrial climate dataset for the past 60,000 years.
Sci Data. 2019 Nov 7;6(1):265. doi: 10.1038/s41597-019-0277-1.
2
Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems.
Curr Biol. 2019 Oct 7;29(19):R1045-R1054. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2019.08.066.
3
Cradles of diversity are unlikely relics of regional climate stability.
Curr Biol. 2019 May 20;29(10):R356-R357. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2019.04.001.
4
PaleoClim, high spatial resolution paleoclimate surfaces for global land areas.
Sci Data. 2018 Nov 13;5:180254. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2018.254.
5
Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2018 Oct;33(10):765-776. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005. Epub 2018 Aug 30.
7
Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures.
Nature. 2018 Jan 31;554(7690):92-96. doi: 10.1038/nature25464.
8
Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia.
Ann Bot. 2017 Jan;119(2):207-214. doi: 10.1093/aob/mcw248. Epub 2017 Jan 7.
10

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验