School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.
J Biol Dyn. 2020 Dec;14(1):767-787. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1833994.
Scarlet fever is an acute respiratory infectious disease and the incidence rate is increasing from 2011 throughout the world. In this paper, the mathematical models are proposed, which incorporate both direct transmissions and indirect transmissions of scarlet fever. The threshold conditions for disease invasion are obtained in terms of the basic reproduction number. The peak value, final size and epidemic time in a seasonal prevalence are investigated numerically. Furthermore, the effects of seasonal fluctuations on disease outbreak are also studied on the basis of real data in China.
猩红热是一种急性呼吸道传染病，其发病率自 2011 年以来在全球呈上升趋势。本文建立了同时考虑猩红热直接传播和间接传播的数学模型，利用基本再生数给出了疾病的感染阈值条件，通过数值模拟研究了季节流行中疾病的峰值、最终规模和流行时间。此外，还基于中国的实际数据研究了季节性波动对疾病爆发的影响。
