Zhang Qi, Liu Wendong, Ma Wang, Shi Yingying, Wu Ying, Li Yuan, Liang Shuyi, Zhu Yefei, Zhou Minghao
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, 210009, China.
BMC Infect Dis. 2017 Aug 30;17(1):596. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2681-5.
A marked increase in the incidence rate of scarlet fever imposed a considerable burden on the health of children aged 5 to 15 years. The main purpose of this study was to depict the spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China in order to develop and implement effective scientific prevention and control strategies.
Smoothed map was used to demonstrate the spatial distribution of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province. In addition, a retrospective space-time analysis based on a discrete Poisson model was utilized to detect clusters of scarlet fever from 2005 to 2015.
During the years 2005-2015, a total of 15,873 scarlet fever cases occurred in Jiangsu Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.87 per 100,000. A majority of the cases (83.67%) occurred in children aged 3 to 9 years. Each year, two seasonal incidence peaks were observed, the higher occurring between March and July, the lower between November and the following January. The incidence in the southern regions of the province was generally higher than that in the northern regions. Seven clusters, all of which occurred during incidence peaks, were detected via space-time scan statistical analysis. The most likely cluster and one of the secondary clusters were detected in the southern and northern high endemic regions, respectively.
The prevalence of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province had a marked seasonality variation and was relatively endemic in some regions. Children aged 3 to 9 years were the major victims of this disease, and kindergartens and primary schools were the focus of surveillance and control. Targeted strategies and measures should be taken to reduce the incidence.
猩红热发病率显著上升给5至15岁儿童的健康带来了相当大的负担。本研究的主要目的是描述中国江苏省猩红热的时空流行病学特征，以便制定和实施有效的科学防控策略。
采用平滑地图展示江苏省猩红热的空间分布。此外，利用基于离散泊松模型的回顾性时空分析，检测2005年至2015年期间猩红热的聚集性病例。
2005 - 2015年期间，江苏省共发生15873例猩红热病例，年均发病率为十万分之1.87。大多数病例（83.67%）发生在3至9岁的儿童中。每年观察到两个季节性发病高峰，较高的高峰出现在3月至7月之间，较低的高峰出现在11月至次年1月之间。该省南部地区的发病率普遍高于北部地区。通过时空扫描统计分析检测到7个聚集性病例，所有聚集性病例均发生在发病高峰期间。最可能的聚集性病例和一个次要聚集性病例分别在南部和北部高流行地区被检测到。
江苏省猩红热的流行具有明显的季节性变化，且在一些地区呈相对地方性流行。3至9岁的儿童是该病的主要受害者，幼儿园和小学是监测和防控的重点。应采取针对性的策略和措施以降低发病率。
