Manian Shanthi
P.O. Box 646210, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-6210.
J Dev Econ. 2021 Jan;148. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102562. Epub 2020 Sep 10.
Risky health behaviors contribute to a large share of disease in developing countries, yet few papers have studied the effect of conflict on these behaviors. The canonical health capital model predicts that conflict should increase risky health behaviors: as the likelihood of survival falls, incentives to invest in preventive measures also fall, increasing risk-taking. However, recent findings from various violent contexts, including the drug war in Mexico, suggest the behavioral response to conflict may reduce risk-taking. In this paper, I identify the effect of insecurity on sexual risk-taking using unique panel data on female sex workers in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. I show that more intense conflict generates a large reduction in risky sex transactions. I rule out several alternate explanations, including compositional changes in sex markets and changes in drug use. The results suggest that the behavioral response to insecurity can mitigate the negative effects of conflict on health.
在发展中国家，危险的健康行为导致了很大一部分疾病，但很少有论文研究冲突对这些行为的影响。典型的健康资本模型预测，冲突应该会增加危险的健康行为：随着生存可能性的下降，投资于预防措施的动机也会下降，从而增加冒险行为。然而，包括墨西哥毒品战争在内的各种暴力环境中的最新研究结果表明，对冲突的行为反应可能会降低冒险行为。在本文中，我利用墨西哥华雷斯城女性性工作者的独特面板数据，确定不安全因素对性冒险行为的影响。我发现，更激烈的冲突会使危险性交易大幅减少。我排除了几种其他解释，包括性市场的构成变化和毒品使用的变化。研究结果表明，对不安全因素的行为反应可以减轻冲突对健康的负面影响。
