尼日利亚的木薯生产：趋势、不稳定性及分解分析（1970 - 2018年）
Cassava production in Nigeria: trends, instability and decomposition analysis (1970-2018).
作者信息
Ikuemonisan Edamisan Stephen, Mafimisebi Taiwo Ejiola, Ajibefun Igbekele, Adenegan Kemisola
机构信息
Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Adekunle Ajasin University, PMB 001, Akungba Akoko, Nigeria.
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, School of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology, The Federal University of Technology, PMB, 704, Akure, Nigeria.
出版信息
Heliyon. 2020 Oct;6(10):e05089. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05089. Epub 2020 Oct 13.
This study analyzed the compound growth rate (CGR) and the contributions of yield and area to cassava production output in Nigeria. During the period, TE1970 - TE2018, production followed an upward trajectory from 9.3 million tonnes (1970) to 59.5 million tonnes (2018) while yield oscillated between 7.9tonnes/ha (TE2014) and 11.9tonnes/ha (TE2010). At this period, the CGR per year for yield declined (-0.2%), harvested area increased (10.9%) and production increased (10.6%). The decomposition analysis for the period revealed that, increase in output was largely due to expansion of harvested area (152%) while the interaction between area and yield effect declined production output by 45.8%. Regrettably, during the period, cassava yield also declined production output by 5.8%. The study also found that harvested area has the highest instability index (11.8). In order to further increase and sustain cassava production in Nigeria, intense planting of high yield cassava stems instead of solely expanding cropped area is recommended.
本研究分析了尼日利亚木薯产量的复合增长率（CGR）以及产量和种植面积对木薯生产产出的贡献。在1970年至2018年期间，产量呈上升趋势，从1970年的930万吨增至2018年的5950万吨，而单产在7.9吨/公顷（2014年）至11.9吨/公顷（2010年）之间波动。在此期间，单产的年复合增长率下降了（-0.2%），收获面积增加了（10.9%），产量增加了（10.6%）。该时期的分解分析表明，产量增加主要归因于收获面积的扩大（152%），而面积与单产效应之间的相互作用使产量下降了45.8%。遗憾的是，在此期间，木薯单产也使产量下降了5.8%。研究还发现，收获面积的不稳定指数最高（11.8）。为了进一步提高并维持尼日利亚的木薯产量，建议大力种植高产木薯茎，而不是单纯扩大种植面积。
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