Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Technische Hochschule Köln (University of Applied Sciences), Cologne 50679, Germany.
Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Technische Hochschule Köln (University of Applied Sciences), Cologne 50679, Germany; Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, D-50923 Cologne, Germany.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jan 20;753:142549. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142549. Epub 2020 Sep 28.
Rainfed agriculture is Uganda's mainstay across the different regions of its territory. Farmland area has been reported to increase despite agriculture's vulnerability to climate variations. This great interplay among land-use dynamics, climate extremes, and food systems is, however, understudied. The current research, therefore, explores this interaction at both national and regional scales for the period between 2001 and 2017. Following an approach that employs remote sensing datasets on Net Primary Productivity (NPP), land cover types, drought indices, and climate variables, i.e. precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration, impacts of climate extremes and land cover changes on food production have been analysed. Similarly, the performance of ten major crops in Uganda over the last 6 decades has been detected using the Regime Shift technique. Key findings, thereof, indicate that NPP in farmlands is sensitive to climate variability, and this sensitivity varies spatially among the regions. Forests and permanent wetlands have been massively changed into farmlands, hence, moving a step forward into offsetting food insecurity but a step backward in preserving ecosystem services, espcially mitigating climate change. Furthermore, the noticeable increase in the total production of the major crops in Uganda seems to be derived mainly by the increase in area harvested affirming the step towards food security. However, the influences, thereof, may aggravate climate change impacts especially through reversing carbon sinks into carbon sources. This reversal could impact the crop yields further. Contrastingly, results from some crops illustrate the potential to increase crop production without necessarily expanding the cropland area. Therefore, Uganda may, instead, consider exploiting the maximum yield potential of crops through, for instance, augmenting rainfed agriculture with irrigation and enforcing effective policies rather than expanding farmland area. These findings collectively contribute further to our understanding of the importance of policies that ensure food security but at the same time preserve a healthy environment.
雨养农业是乌干达在其领土不同地区的主要支柱。尽管农业容易受到气候变化的影响，但据报道农田面积一直在增加。然而，土地利用动态、气候极端事件和粮食系统之间的这种巨大相互作用研究不足。因此，本研究在 2001 年至 2017 年期间，在国家和地区两级探讨了这种相互作用。本研究采用基于遥感的净初级生产力（NPP）、土地覆盖类型、干旱指数和气候变量（即降水、温度和蒸散）数据集，分析了气候极端事件和土地覆盖变化对粮食生产的影响。同样，使用体制转变技术检测了乌干达过去 60 年来 10 种主要作物的表现。关键发现表明，农田的 NPP对气候变化具有敏感性，而且这种敏感性在不同地区之间存在空间差异。森林和永久性湿地已大规模转变为农田，因此，在缓解粮食不安全方面前进了一步，但在保护生态系统服务方面后退了一步，特别是减缓气候变化。此外，乌干达主要作物总产量的显著增加似乎主要源于收获面积的增加，从而朝着粮食安全迈进了一步。然而，这种增加的影响可能会加剧气候变化的影响，特别是通过将碳汇转变为碳源。这种转变可能会进一步影响作物产量。相比之下，一些作物的结果表明，有可能在不扩大耕地面积的情况下增加作物产量。因此，乌干达可以考虑通过例如通过灌溉来增加雨养农业并实施有效的政策，而不是扩大耕地面积，来挖掘作物最大产量潜力。这些研究结果共同进一步加深了我们对确保粮食安全但同时保护健康环境的政策的重要性的理解。
