New Rural Development Research Institute, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jan 21;18(3):921. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18030921.
Land use/land cover change is a frontier issue in the field of geography research. Taking Suzhou City in Anhui Province as the research case, based on thematic mapper /enhanced thematic mapper+ (TM/ETM+) remote sensing data from 1998 to 2018, through the transfer matrix model and modified conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent (CLUE-S) model, the simulation of the land use landscape pattern evolution was studied from a multi-scenario perspective. The results showed that in the past 20 years, landscape patterns have undergone spatial-temporal conversion, which was mainly manifested as the evolution from a cultivated land landscape and other agricultural land to construction land, and there was some transformation between other landscape types, but the transformation degree was not significant. The spatial autocorrelation factor was introduced to correct the CLUE-S model, and the Kappa index reached 0.83, indicating that the modified CLUE-S model had a good simulation accuracy. (I) In the cultivated land protection scenario, limiting the conversion of basic farmland use, and by 2028, the proportion of cultivated land increased by 5.23%, distributed in eastern Suzhou City; (II) in the economic development scenario, by 2028, the construction land area increased by 14.58%, and was distributed in the surrounding regions of the built-up areas; and (III) in the ecological protection scenario, by 2028, wood land, water, and other ecological protection land area increased, and were distributed in the central and eastern part of Suzhou City. Research can provide useful decision-making support for land use optimization and remediation.
土地利用/土地覆被变化是地理学研究领域的一个前沿问题。以安徽省宿州市为研究案例，基于 1998 年至 2018 年的主题绘图仪/增强型主题绘图仪+(TM/ETM+)遥感数据，采用转移矩阵模型和改进的小区域土地利用及其影响转换(CLUE-S)模型，从多情景角度研究了土地利用景观格局演变的模拟。结果表明，在过去的 20 年里，景观格局发生了时空转换，主要表现为耕地景观和其他农业用地向建设用地的演变，其他景观类型之间也存在一些转化，但转化程度不明显。引入空间自相关因子对 CLUE-S 模型进行修正，Kappa 指数达到 0.83，表明修正后的 CLUE-S 模型具有较好的模拟精度。(I)在耕地保护情景下，限制基本农田用途的转化，到 2028 年，耕地比例增加 5.23%，分布在宿州市东部；(II)在经济发展情景下，到 2028 年，建设用地面积增加 14.58%，分布在建成区周边地区；(III)在生态保护情景下，到 2028 年，林地、水域等生态保护用地面积增加，分布在宿州市中部和东部。研究可为土地利用优化和整治提供有益的决策支持。
