Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Instituto de Biociências (INBIO), Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.
Coordenação de Biodiversidade, Divisão de curso em Entomologia, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 20;15(10):e0241070. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241070. eCollection 2020.
Climate change affects individual life-history characteristics and species interactions, including predator-prey interactions. While effects of warming on Aedes aegypti adults are well known, clarity the interactive effects of climate change (temperature and CO2 concentration) and predation risk on the larval stage remains unexplored. In this study, we performed a microcosm experiment simulating temperature and CO2 changes in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, for the year 2100. Simulated climate change scenarios (SCCS) were in accordance with the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Used SCCS were: Control (real-time current conditions in Manaus: average temperature is ~25.76°C ± 0.71°C and ~477.26 ± 9.38 parts per million by volume (ppmv) CO2); Light: increase of ~1,7°C and ~218 ppmv CO2; Intermediate: increase of ~2.4°C and ~446 ppmv CO2; and Extreme: increase of ~4.5°C and ~861 ppmv CO2, all increases were relative to a Control SCCS. Light, Intermediate and Extreme SCCS reproduced, respectively, the B1, A1B, and A2 climatic scenarios predicted by IPCC (2007). We analyzed Aedes aegypti larval survivorship and adult emergence pattern with a factorial design combining predation risk (control and predator presence-Toxorhynchites haemorrhoidalis larvae) and SCCS. Neither SCCS nor predation risk affected Aedes aegypti larval survivorship, but adult emergence pattern was affected by SCCS. Accordingly, our results did not indicate interactive effects of SCCS and predation risk on larval survivorship and emergence pattern of Aedes aegypti reared in SCCS in western Amazonia. Aedes aegypti is resistant to SCCS conditions tested, mainly due to high larval survivorship, even under Extreme SCCS, and warmer scenarios increase adult Aedes aegypti emergence. Considering that Aedes aegypti is a health problem in western Amazonia, an implication of our findings is that the use of predation cues as biocontrol strategies will not provide a viable means of controlling the accelerated adult emergence expected under the IPCC climatic scenarios.
气候变化影响个体的生活史特征和种间相互作用，包括捕食者-猎物相互作用。虽然变暖对埃及伊蚊成虫的影响已众所周知，但气候变化（温度和 CO2 浓度）和捕食风险对幼虫阶段的相互作用的影响仍不清楚。在这项研究中，我们进行了一个微宇宙实验，模拟了 2100 年巴西玛瑙斯的温度和 CO2 变化。模拟的气候变化情景（SCCS）符合政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告。使用的 SCCS 是：对照（玛瑙斯当前实时条件：平均温度约为 25.76°C±0.71°C，体积 CO2 浓度约为 477.26±9.38 百万分率（ppm））；轻度：升高约 1.7°C 和 218 ppm CO2；中度：升高约 2.4°C 和 446 ppm CO2；极端：升高约 4.5°C 和 861 ppm CO2，所有升高均相对于对照 SCCS。轻度、中度和极端 SCCS 分别再现了 IPCC（2007 年）预测的 B1、A1B 和 A2 气候情景。我们通过结合捕食风险（对照和捕食者存在-美洲大斑潜蝇幼虫）和 SCCS 的析因设计来分析埃及伊蚊幼虫的存活率和成虫出现模式。SCCS 或捕食风险都没有影响埃及伊蚊幼虫的存活率，但成虫出现模式受到 SCCS 的影响。因此，我们的结果表明，在西部亚马逊地区，SCCS 和捕食风险对埃及伊蚊幼虫存活率和成虫出现模式的相互作用没有影响。埃及伊蚊对测试的 SCCS 条件具有抗性，主要是由于幼虫存活率高，即使在极端 SCCS 下也是如此，并且较暖的情景会增加成虫埃及伊蚊的出现。考虑到埃及伊蚊是西部亚马逊地区的一个健康问题，我们研究结果的一个含义是，使用捕食线索作为生物防治策略，将不能为控制预期的 IPCC 气候情景下加速的成虫出现提供可行的手段。
