Department of Biology, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, USA.
Department of Entomology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Penn State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2019 Oct;22(10):1690-1708. doi: 10.1111/ele.13335. Epub 2019 Jul 8.
Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
蚊媒传染病在全球造成了重大疾病负担。这些变温动物媒介和寄生虫的关键率对温度有强烈的非线性响应，因此也对气候变化有响应。在这里，我们回顾了基于特征的方法如何综合和从机制上预测跨媒介、病原体和环境的传播对温度的依赖性。我们展示了 11 种由 15 种不同蚊子物种传播的病原体 - 包括疟疾、登革热和寨卡等全球重要疾病 - 这些病原体综合了以前发表的研究。传播随温度强烈且单峰变化，在 23-29°C 时达到峰值，在 9-23°C 和 32-38°C 以下时降至零。不同的特征在低温和高温下限制了传播，而温度对传播的影响因蚊子和寄生虫的种类而异。温带病原体比热带病原体具有更宽的热范围和更低的热下限和上限。在热带病原体中，疟疾和罗斯河病毒的热最佳值（25-26°C）较低，而登革热和寨卡病毒的热最佳值（29°C）较高。我们预计在热最佳值以下，变暖会增加传播，但在最佳值以上，传播会减少。未来工作的关键方向包括将机制模型与现场传播联系起来，将温度效应与控制措施结合起来，纳入特征变化和温度变化，以及研究气候适应和迁移。
