Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Energy and Natural Resources, School of Sciences, Ghana.
Biomed Res Int. 2020 Oct 6;2020:8168479. doi: 10.1155/2020/8168479. eCollection 2020.
Child mortality is a global health problem. The United Nations' 2018 report on levels and trends on child mortality indicated that under-five mortality is one of the major public health problems in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. To further mitigate this problem, it is important to identify the drivers of under-five mortality in order to achieve the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2.
In this study, we investigated the effects of some selected risk factors on child mortality using data from the 2014 Ghana Demographic Health Survey. We modelled the relationship between child mortality and the risk factors using a logistic regression model under the frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. We used the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm to simulate parameter estimates from the posterior distributions, and statistical analyses were carried out using STATA version 14.1.
Results from the frequentist framework are in line with those from the Bayesian framework. The results showed an increased risk of death among children who were delivered through caesarean and reduced relative odds of death among children whose sizes are average or large at birth and whose mothers have formal education.
There is a need for improved health facilities for better health-care for mothers and children. Education should, among other things, emphasise on the need for mothers to go for regular check-ups during antinatal and postnatal periods for improved mother and child health.
儿童死亡率是全球卫生问题。联合国 2018 年关于儿童死亡率水平和趋势的报告指出，加纳五岁以下儿童死亡率是主要公共卫生问题之一，每千例活产有 60 例死亡。为了进一步减轻这一问题，重要的是要确定导致五岁以下儿童死亡的因素，以实现联合国可持续发展目标 3 目标 2。
本研究利用 2014 年加纳人口健康调查的数据，调查了一些选定的风险因素对儿童死亡率的影响。我们使用逻辑回归模型在经典框架和贝叶斯框架下建立了儿童死亡率与风险因素之间的关系。我们使用 Metropolis-Hastings 算法从后验分布中模拟参数估计，使用 STATA 版本 14.1 进行统计分析。
经典框架的结果与贝叶斯框架的结果一致。结果表明，通过剖腹产分娩的儿童死亡风险增加，而出生时体重适中或较大且母亲受过正规教育的儿童死亡的相对风险降低。
需要改善卫生设施，为母亲和儿童提供更好的医疗保健。教育应特别强调母亲在产前和产后期间定期检查的必要性，以改善母婴健康。
