Department of Civil Engineering, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, 21251, USA.
Climate and Global Dynamics Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA.
Sci Rep. 2020 Oct 21;10(1):17905. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-74696-4.
Relative sea level rise at tide gauge Galveston Pier 21, Texas, is the combination of absolute sea level rise and land subsidence. We estimate subsidence rates of 3.53 mm/a during 1909-1937, 6.08 mm/a during 1937-1983, and 3.51 mm/a since 1983. Subsidence attributed to aquifer-system compaction accompanying groundwater extraction contributed as much as 85% of the 0.7 m relative sea level rise since 1909, and an additional 1.9 m is projected by 2100, with contributions from land subsidence declining from 30 to 10% over the projection interval. We estimate a uniform absolute sea level rise rate of 1.10 mm ± 0.19/a in the Gulf of Mexico during 1909-1992 and its acceleration of 0.270 mm/a at Galveston Pier 21 since 1992. This acceleration is 87% of the value for the highest scenario of global mean sea level rise. Results indicate that evaluating this extreme scenario would be valid for resource-management and flood-hazard-mitigation strategies for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, especially those affected by subsidence.
得克萨斯州加尔维斯顿 21 号码头的相对海平面上升是海平面绝对上升和陆地沉降的综合结果。我们估计，在 1909 年至 1937 年期间，沉降速率为 3.53 毫米/年；在 1937 年至 1983 年期间，沉降速率为 6.08 毫米/年；自 1983 年以来，沉降速率为 3.51 毫米/年。伴随地下水抽取的含水层系统压实引起的沉降，对自 1909 年以来的 0.7 米相对海平面上升贡献了高达 85%，预计到 2100 年，还将再上升 1.9 米，在此期间，陆地沉降的贡献从 30%下降到 10%。我们估计，在 1909 年至 1992 年期间，墨西哥湾的海平面绝对上升率为 1.10 毫米/±0.19/年，自 1992 年以来，在加尔维斯顿 21 号码头的海平面上升加速率为 0.270 毫米/年。这一加速率是全球海平面上升最高情景值的 87%。研究结果表明，评估这一极端情景对墨西哥湾沿海社区的资源管理和洪水灾害缓解策略是有效的，特别是对那些受沉降影响的社区。
