Younas Muhammad, Khan Shuhab D, Tirmizi Osman, Hamed Younes
University of Houston, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Houston, TX, USA.
University of Houston, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Houston, TX, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 1;902:166102. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166102. Epub 2023 Aug 8.
Land subsidence has been an ongoing issue for over a century along the Gulf Coast of Texas in the United States. This study assesses and models the factors contributing to land subsidence covering fifty-six (56) counties along the Gulf of Mexico coastline from Louisiana to the border of Mexico, approximately 300,000 km. Geospatial statistical techniques and regression models were employed to investigate and predict the fundamental causes of land subsidence by integrating multiple datasets such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) (147 stations), groundwater extraction (78,420 wells), hydrocarbon production (84,424 wells), precipitation, and population growth. In the last two decades, the overall population rose by 33 % and the compound annual population growth rate increased from 2.08 to 4.10 % in Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, and Chambers counties. Emerging hotspot analysis reveals that the groundwater level is persistently declining and the regression model (R = 0.92) tested over Harris County predicts that the population growth significantly contributes to land subsidence in this region. The groundwater withdrawal rate is increased from 23 to 96.6 billion gallons in Harris, Montgomery, and Fort Bend counties in the last two decades. A prolonged drought from 2010 to 2015 due to low precipitation affected all fifty-six counties. Oil production increased eightfold and a high extraction rate of 19.5 to 40.1 million bbl/yr of oil in Karnes County was recorded within the last 20 years. The regression model (R = 0.73) over this county suggests that oil extraction is a primary contributing factor to the observed subsidence. Although the gas extraction rates for all counties are decreasing over time, some counties in the southern part of the Gulf Coast Aquifer show relatively higher extraction rates. For the first time, this research determines that all fifty-six counties along the Gulf Coast of Texas are undergoing land subsidence and experiencing high population growth, groundwater withdrawal, and hydrocarbon extraction.
在美国得克萨斯州的墨西哥湾沿岸，地面沉降问题已经持续了一个多世纪。本研究评估并模拟了导致地面沉降的因素，研究范围覆盖了从路易斯安那州到墨西哥边境的墨西哥湾沿岸56个县，面积约30万平方公里。运用地理空间统计技术和回归模型，通过整合全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）（147个站点）、地下水开采（78420口井）、油气生产（84424口井）、降水和人口增长等多个数据集，来调查和预测地面沉降的根本原因。在过去二十年中，蒙哥马利县、沃勒县、Fort Bend县和钱伯斯县的总人口增长了33%，年复合人口增长率从2.08%增至4.10%。新兴热点分析表明，地下水位持续下降，在哈里斯县测试的回归模型（R = 0.92）预测，人口增长是该地区地面沉降的重要因素。在过去二十年中，哈里斯县、蒙哥马利县和Fort Bend县的地下水开采量从230亿加仑增至966亿加仑。2010年至2015年因降水少导致的长期干旱影响了所有56个县。石油产量增长了八倍，在过去20年中，卡恩斯县的石油开采率高达每年1950万至4010万桶。该县的回归模型（R = 0.73）表明，石油开采是观测到的沉降的主要促成因素。尽管所有县的天然气开采率都在随时间下降，但墨西哥湾沿岸含水层南部的一些县开采率相对较高。本研究首次确定，得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸的所有56个县都在经历地面沉降，且人口增长、地下水开采和油气开采量都很高。
