在卫星测高时代探测到由气候变化驱动的海平面加速上升。
Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.
机构信息
Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309;
Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Feb 27;115(9):2022-2025. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115. Epub 2018 Feb 12.
Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.
利用 TOPEX/Poseidon、Jason-1、Jason-2 和 Jason-3 卫星测高仪 25 年的高精度时间序列数据，我们估计过去 25 年全球海平面气候变化驱动的加速率为 0.084 ± 0.025 毫米/年。加上这 25 年海平面气候变化驱动的平均海平面上升速率为 2.9 毫米/年，二次曲线的简单外推表明，与 2005 年相比，到 2100 年全球平均海平面可能上升 65 ± 12 厘米，这与政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第五次评估报告（AR5）的模型预测大致相符。
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