Wright Austin L, Sonin Konstantin, Driscoll Jesse, Wilson Jarnickae
Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, United States.
HSE University, Moscow, Russia.
J Econ Behav Organ. 2020 Dec;180:544-554. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.10.008. Epub 2020 Oct 17.
Shelter-in-place ordinances were the first wide-spread policy measures aimed to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Compliance with shelter-in-place directives is individually costly and requires behavioral changes across diverse sub-populations. Leveraging county-day measures on population movement derived from cellphone location data and the staggered introduction of local mandates, we find that economic factors have played an important role in determining the level of compliance with local shelter-in-place ordinances in the US. Specifically, residents of low income areas complied with shelter-in-place ordinances less than their counterparts in areas with stronger economic endowments, even after accounting for potential confounding factors including partisanship, population density, exposure to recent trade disputes, unemployment, and other factors. Novel results on the local impact of the 2020 CARES Act suggest stimulus transfers that addressed economic dislocation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased social distancing.
就地避难令是首批旨在减缓新冠病毒传播的广泛实施的政策措施。遵守就地避难指令对个人来说成本高昂，并且需要不同亚群体改变行为。利用来自手机位置数据得出的县级每日人口流动措施以及地方指令的交错实施，我们发现经济因素在美国决定地方就地避难令的遵守程度方面发挥了重要作用。具体而言，低收入地区的居民比经济禀赋更强地区的居民对就地避难令的遵守程度更低，即便在考虑了包括党派性、人口密度、近期贸易争端暴露程度、失业率及其他因素在内的潜在混杂因素之后也是如此。关于2020年《新冠病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》（CARES Act）地方影响的新结果表明，应对新冠疫情造成的经济混乱的刺激转移支付显著增加了社交距离。
