Jarynowski Andrzej, Wójta-Kempa Monika, Belik Vitaly
Interdisciplinary Research Institute, Wroclaw, Poland.
System Modeling Group, Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany.
Przegl Epidemiol. 2020;74(2):258-275. doi: 10.32394/pe.74.20.
This study aims to investigate the social interest in SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 in the Internet media during the epidemic in Poland and serves as a complement to longitudinal surveys monitoring public perception in real time.
We quantitatively analyzed "coronavirus" digital footprints on the Internet, in particular, on Google, Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by EventRegistry, from 15.01 to 07.04.2020 (before and after official introduction of COVID-19 to Poland on 04.03.2020). We present results on trend analysis supported by statistical techniques.
We identified six major temporal clusters of the interest on the topic COVID-19: 1) Chinese, 2) Italian, 3) Waiting, 4) Mitigations, 5) Physical distancing and Lockdown, 6) Anti-crisis shield. There was an exponential increase of the interest when the Polish government "declared a war against disease" around 11/12.03.2020 with a massive response activity. Later on, there was a decay in the interest with additional phases related to physical distancing and an anti-crisis legislation act associated with pronounced local peaks. We have found that declarations of response strategies by the Polish prime minister or the minister of health gathered the highest attention of Internet users. So already enacted or in force events do not affect the interest to such an extent. We have observed very weak or even negative correlations between a colloquial search term "antiviral mask" in Google, encyclopaedic definition in Wikipedia "SARS-CoV-2" as well as official COVID-19 incidence series, implying different mechanisms governing the search for knowledge, panic related behaviour and actual burden of COVID-19.
Traditional and social media do not only reflect reality, but also create it. Interest in COVID-19 (measured by topic intensity on the Internet) is unrelated to the officially notified viral pressure (measured by incidence) and probably physical risk of acquiring infection in Poland. As traditional media are ahead of social media in time, we advise to choose traditional news media for a quick dissemination of information, however for a greater impact, social media should be used. Otherwise public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected.
本研究旨在调查波兰疫情期间互联网媒体上对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)和冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的社会关注度,并作为实时监测公众认知的纵向调查的补充。
我们对2020年1月15日至4月7日(2020年3月4日COVID-19正式传入波兰前后)期间互联网上,特别是谷歌、推特、优兔、维基百科以及由事件注册中心代表的电子媒体上的“冠状病毒”数字足迹进行了定量分析。我们展示了由统计技术支持的趋势分析结果。
我们确定了对COVID-19主题兴趣的六个主要时间集群:1)中国,2)意大利,3)等待,4)缓解措施,5)保持社交距离和封锁,6)反危机盾牌。当波兰政府在2020年3月11日/12日左右“宣布与疾病作战”并开展大规模应对活动时,关注度呈指数级增长。后来,随着与保持社交距离相关的额外阶段以及与明显的局部峰值相关的反危机立法行为,关注度有所下降。我们发现波兰总理或卫生部长宣布应对策略引起了互联网用户的最高关注。所以已经颁布或生效的事件对关注度的影响程度不大。我们观察到谷歌上的通俗搜索词“抗病毒口罩”、维基百科中“SARS-CoV-2”的百科定义以及官方COVID-19发病率系列之间存在非常微弱甚至负相关,这意味着在寻求知识、恐慌相关行为和COVID-19实际负担方面存在不同的机制。
传统媒体和社交媒体不仅反映现实,而且塑造现实。对COVID-19的兴趣(通过互联网上的主题强度衡量)与官方通报的病毒压力(通过发病率衡量)以及波兰可能的感染实际风险无关。由于传统媒体在时间上领先于社交媒体,我们建议选择传统新闻媒体快速传播信息,然而为了产生更大影响,应使用社交媒体。否则,公共信息宣传活动对社会的影响可能比预期的要小。