PURPOSE

We aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC) and to compare its performance with that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM system.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

To develop a nomogram, we collected the clinical data of 147 patients diagnosed with DCC who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were determined using a concordance index and a calibration curve. Predictive performance was compared with that of a current staging systems for DCC.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis revealed that jaundice, alcohol consumption, high fibrinogen, poorly differentiated tumor cells, positive lymph nodes, and positive margins were significantly associated with overall survival. These variables were incorporated into the nomogram. The concordance index of the nomogram for predicting overall survival was 0.737 (P<0.001), which is significantly higher than the concordance index values (concordance index = 0.586) acquired using the AJCC TNM system (eighth edition). The calibration curve agreed well with predicted prediction and observed overall survival.

CONCLUSION

We developed a nomogram for predicting the prognoses of patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma, which had superior practical clinical value compared with that of the AJCC TNM system.