Lebanese University, Faculty of Science, Hadath, Lebanon.
Lebanese International University, Mathematics and Physics Department, Beirut, Lebanon.
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Aug 19;17(5):5618-5632. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020302.
We explore the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon by adopting two different approaches: the STEIR model, which is a modified SEIR model accounting for the effect of travel, and a repeated iterations model. We fit available daily data since the first diagnosed case until the end of June 2020 and we forecast possible scenarios of contagion associated with different levels of social distancing measures and travel inflows. We determine the initial reproductive transmission rate in Lebanon and all subsequent dynamics. In the repeated iterations (RI) model we iterate the available data of currently infected people to forecast future infections under several possible scenarios of contagion. In both models, our results suggest that tougher mitigation measures would slow down the spread of the disease. On the other hand, the current relaxation of measures and partial resumption of international flights, as the STEIR reveals, would trigger a second outbreak of infections, with severity depending on the extent of relaxation. We recommend strong institutional and public commitment to mitigation measures to avoid uncontrolled spread.
我们通过采用两种不同的方法来探索 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在黎巴嫩的传播：STEIR 模型，这是一个修改后的 SEIR 模型，考虑了旅行的影响，以及一个重复迭代模型。我们拟合了自首例确诊病例以来至 2020 年 6 月底的所有可用每日数据，并预测了与不同社交距离措施和旅行流入水平相关的可能传染情况。我们确定了黎巴嫩的初始繁殖传播率以及所有后续动态。在重复迭代（RI）模型中，我们对当前感染人群的可用数据进行迭代，以在几种可能的传染情况下预测未来的感染。在这两种模型中，我们的结果表明，更严格的缓解措施将减缓疾病的传播。另一方面，正如 STEIR 所揭示的那样，目前措施的放松和部分国际航班的恢复将引发第二次感染爆发，其严重程度取决于放松的程度。我们建议机构和公众做出强有力的承诺，采取缓解措施，以避免无法控制的传播。
