Beyond the -value: Bayesian Statistics and Causation.

Statistical paradigms limit the perspective and tools social work researchers use to study the world and answer questions impacting people and policy. Currently, quantitative social work researchers overwhelmingly rely on the frequentist paradigm of statistics. This paper discusses foundational differences between the frequentist and Bayesian statistical paradigms, describes basic concepts of Bayesian analysis, compares Bayesian and frequentist statistical analysis for a sample social work problem, and introduces two types of causal analyses built on Bayesian statistical thinking: counterfactual causality, and causality based on work by computer scientist Judea Pearl. Implications for social work research are discussed.